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davekarpf @davekarpf
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I've reached stage 2 of the #wiredarchive project. I've now read the entire back catalogue, and am circling back to read individual topical throughlines.

The throughlines get pretty long, but I'll post highlight-real versions to the hashtag so ppl can follow along.
First up: the bitcoin throughline!

Here's a reading list:
(1) Early 90s precursor: @StevenLevy on e-money in 1994 wired.com/1994/12/emoney/
(2) Bitcoin origin story, 2011: wired.com/2011/11/mf_bit…
(3) Development of supporting infrastructure, 2014: wired.com/2014/03/what-i…
(cont'd)
(4) Dark Web/Silk Road, 2015: wired.com/2015/05/silk-r…
(5) Blockchain, a love story/a horror story, 2018: wired.com/story/tezos-bl…

Those five articles do a nice job of telling the bitcoin story as it has looked over the years.
(3/x)
Reading these articles leaves me firmly in the bitcoin-skeptic camp.
Set aside the speculation bubble, set aside the dark web/black market demand, and it's not entirely clear what problem bitcoin solves.

It's meant to be a frictionless form of currency exchange, but (4/x)
Paypal and Square have already made prior advances in removing friction from currency exchange. Each then levels its *own* set of fees.

In a world where bitcoin gains mass adoption, the major players will just charge their own fees. (5/x)
this makes bitcoin a powerful arbitrage opportunity, much like Uber and AirBnB have proven to be. The real money in Uber and AirBnB isn't in unlocking stores of value from the untapped "sharing economy." The real money comes from undercutting heavily-regulated industries. (6/x)
Perhaps, five years from now, bitcoin payments will have replaced the cash app and paypal. Perhaps coinbase will replace square. If so, investors in those individual companies will make a lot of money. (7/x)
But I struggle to see how the social impact will be anything near the dreams/predictions/expectations of bitcoin's grand promoters. Regulators will find a way to install regulations (clumsily, I'm sure).

Meanwhile, the market for bitcoin resembles internet stocks post-Yahoo IPO
The argument for bitcoin is "invest early and get rich!"
Bitcoin isn't *just* a tulip-market. But it is *also* a tulip-market. And when the smoke clears, I'm personally suspicious of how important the technology will actually be. (9/x)
This by no means is meant to be a definitive statement. It's meant as an example of what I get from these chronological throughlines.

Bitcoin-mania in 2017/18 *sounds* a lot like IPO-mania in 1995-1999. Reading these stories temporally raises new questions.
(fin)
#wiredarchive
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Here’s my real fear:

I’m afraid the November election will be hacked, directly, through the voting machines/databases.

Im afraid it won’t be terribly subtle.

I’m afraid the outrage will be confined to the usual suspects, and that will functionally be how US democracy ends.
I don’t think that’s *likely*. But I don’t think it’s unfathomable.

Four years ago, I would have thought it unfathomable.

And, reading Kim Zetter’s NYT piece on election security, it sure seems like we’ve failed to take the basic steps to prevent it.
nytimes.com/2018/09/26/mag…
Let’s say there’s strong reason to suspect vote totals were changed.

Let’s say there’s then a detailed investigation from a panel of expert evaluators.

Let’s say they conclude with near certainty that there was vote tampering.

What then?
Read 8 tweets
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I keep going back to how differently this all plays out if Kavanaugh has the humility to initially say "I drank a lot in HS. I have no memory of the events that Dr Ford describes, and do not believe they occurred. But I apologize for my youthful behavior if it caused her harm."
That would have let his allies spend the past two weeks talking about his sterling character and achievements as an adult.

It would have turned this into a debate about whether the mistakes of (rich, white, male) youth should be disqualifying in adulthood. (...)
(...) which is the debate Republicans DESPERATELY would have preferred.

But instead he lied, brazenly and repeatedly, in full display for the Senate and the entire world. All because he was shocked and offended that he might be held to account for his teenage behavior.
Read 4 tweets
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if there was even one Republican in the Senate who cared about institutional legitimacy, Kavanaugh's nomination would be withdrawn.

*Half of the country* is convinced by Dr. Ford's testimony that he got blackout drunk, assaulted her, and LIED ABOUT IT to get on the court. (1/x)
He cannot be a fair and impartial judge. He declared that with his opening statement.

If there were still Republican Senators who cared about the image of the Court as fair and impartial, his nomination would be withdrawn. (2/x)
It isn't JUST that the Republican party doesn't give a damn about sexual assault. (They don't. And Trump confirms that daily.)

The Republican party also doesn't give a damn about maintaining even a shred of legitimacy for the government. (3/x)
Read 4 tweets

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Project FEAR Is Now Project FACT. Are you Ready For Project CATASTROPHE?

That was the lead on our press release that went out on Saturday... it read as follows...

YouTube phenomenon #3Blokesinabub have just returned from a two day fact-finding mission to Geneva, Switzerland,
2/ a city filled with the world’s leading experts in international trade,
intergovernmental law and global geo-economics. The facts and evidence #3Blokes In The Pub come back to the UK with present catastrophic
consequences to the people in the UK far, far worse than previously
3/ as “Project Fear”. When UK mainstream media discuss job loses, it is likely underestimated by a factor of at least SIX. The evidence gathered by #3Blokes shows prospective economic devastation for the engine of the UK.
Read 7 tweets
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1/n: LENDING (business) IS NOT A FEATURE.

And yes, distribution of lending/credit products is a ‘feature’ in some platforms/products.

Lending (CREDIT) is a business with many complex moving parts.

#long #fintech #thread #lending
2/n: In fact “Lending (Credit) is older than money and FinTech.” (medium.com/@gaurav.sharma…)

There’re lot of tweets (within the FinTech community in India) about Whether 'lending is a feature' or not? So, let’s unpack that a bit..
3/n: True definition of Lender = Lending Money from own balance-sheet (i.e. skin in the game). The primary revenue here is Interest Income (Net Revenue from Funds), and margins computed basis NIM (Net Interest Margin) and COF (Cost of Funds).
Read 24 tweets
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Now that I'm back home, I thought I might do a fuller Tweetstorm in response to @mattklewis' question about the GOP and kooks. Buckle up, this is going to be long. 1/
Party establishments and machines get a lot of flak, not just in the US and around the world. It would be safe to say that even people who vote for a party often despise its institutions. 2/
A lot of this criticism is fair (again, regardless of side). Party establishments can be and sadly too often are full of venality, nepotism, and mutual back scratching despite corruption or worse. All true. 3/
Read 18 tweets
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#THREAD: WHAT TRUMP'S EXECUTIVE ORDER DOES...AND DOESN'T DO.

Trump begrudgingly "caved" due to the backlash.

But, as it was all about holding the children hostage to get his demands...the order still pressures Congress to act quickly to avert the problems it delays and creates.
1. KEEPS FAMILIES TOGETHER...WITH BIG CAVEATS.

While the DOJ will continue to prosecute ALL adults crossing the border illegally, it keeps families together but only "where appropriate and consistent with law and available resources."

Leaves flexibility.
2. KEEPS FAMILIES W/ DHS.

Parents can stay with their children in detention with DHS, but the catch is only to the "extent permitted by law and subject to the availability of appropriations."

BIG CAVEAT...THE FLORES AGREEMENT PREVENTS CHILDREN FROM BEING DETAINED AFTER 20 DAYS.
Read 13 tweets
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Long, long thread. A re-write of @LadybirdBooks Sleeping Beauty to make it fit for the 21st Century:

Once upon a time, there lived a kign and queen wo were very happy, except for one thing. They both longed to have children but they had none. (1)
Now it happened one day, when the queen had been bathing, that a frog crept out of the water. The queen told the frog all about her longing for a child and felt much better. (2)
Later that year, she found out that she was expecting a baby. She and her husband were delighted. (3)
Read 51 tweets
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now let's talk about what happens next:
what happens next is that you will watch news organizations lean, very bizarrely, on the Spacey coming out. You will be confused by this.
Spacey being gay is not news to you or I. But it is news to people who watch Fox, who read the New York Post. But more importantly...
Read 10 tweets

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