So Tory Eurosceptics are at the crux of deciding whether to mount a mass rebellion against the Government on Monday by backing four amendments to the trade bill. Will this be the moment they finally bare their teeth? Here’s current thinking in the ERG, which is divided
Option one all our war. This is what hardline Eurosceptics want, a mass rebellion by all 60 members of the ERG which Labour may or may not join. At the very least it’s a show of strength, at the most it ends in defeat for the Government
Option two: Eurosceptics divide. Around two dozen Tories back the rebel amendments, enough to show the Govt that they mean business but not enough to defeat it
Option 3, and the one that looks most likely. The Govt accepts an amendment which guarantees that there will be no customs border in the Irish Sea. It’s pretty uncontentious. The ERG can claim a partial victory, and will withdraw the 3 other far more damaging amendments
It’s worth remembering that the ERG is not a homogenous group - there are degrees of Euroscepticism within. Jacob Rees-Mogg finds himself having to balance the purist hardliners with those who want a more conciliatory approach and fear Govt collapse
