1/18

Here's an article from @DanielJHannan in @ConHome. The usual rubbish. It contains this curious passage though.

Just a tiny little problem with it. It's a load of old bollocks or being generous a misunderstanding with a minuscule element of truth.

conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/…
2/18

I'm indebted to @pswidlicki for spotting the problem first.



Like me Pavel has eaten Argentinian beef in the UK, so like me was a bit surprised to see Daniel stating that it was banned.

It isn't banned.
3/18

@pswidlicki and I had both eaten Argentinian beef in an Argentinian beef restaurant. Coincidentally in the very same restaurant. This one in Battersea where they claim to fly the beef in from Argentina. I'm pretty sure its not the only one though.

santamariadelsur.com/menu/
4/18

Nevertheless it could be an a lie couldn't it? So let's get some stats on it.

I looked up Argentina's exports of chilled beef and confirmed what had previously been suggested to me. About 70% of their exports go to the EU. 40% of it to Germany. UK takes < 1%.

Not banned.
5/18

So what's Daniel Hannan on about then?

Well it turns out that there was a ban on Argentinian beef from some Northern provinces between 2002 & 2016. Why? Because of an outbreak of Foot & Mouth Disease.

The USA, Canada and others also banned it.

euractiv.com/section/agricu…
6/18

Interestingly though while the EU banned exports from the affected northern provinces only, the USA banned exports from the whole country. This led to Argentina launching a trade dispute with the USA at the WTO that was only resolved 14 years later.

piie.com/system/files/d…
7/18

So, as this graph shows, with the EU only banning it from the affected region exports to the EU from Argentina picked up again after the FMD outbreak in 2002 and it barely affected total exports to the EU in subsequent years. The regional EU ban was lifted in 2016.
8/18

While as you might expect with a national ban, exports of Argentine beef to the USA flat-lined during this period.

piie.com/system/files/d…,
9/18

Daniel Hannan, being Daniel, implies that the EU banned Argentine beef for some shady unscientific reason, and the sensible UK would not do likewise, when in reality a limited evidence-based ban for disease control barely affected Argentina's export of beef to the EU.
10/18

Now, the fact that Argentina exports most of its chilled beef to the EU is a rather interesting fact that I wasn't aware of before @IWBAShitShow for pointed it out to me, and I'm indebted to him on this.

11/18

But as shown earlier Germany's imports of Argentine beef utterly dwarf the UK's imports. The annual EU import for the last few years averaged around 35,000 tonnes with a UK average of about 350 tonnes.

This is a massive red-herring By Daniel.

What's the tariff on it?
12/18

Well, almost all Argentine beef is imported under a quota giving them preferential access to the EU markets, but I was a bit hazy on the details before now. Basically there are two quotas for Argentine beef. One is shared and one is exclusively for Argentina.
13/18

The first one (order 092201 or 092202/quarter) known as the grain fed or 481 quota was until recently for 48,200 tonnes of high-quality beef on 0% duty. EU Reg 481/2012 (eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…) shared between Argentina, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, USA and Uruguay.
14/18

This 481 quota was originally exclusively for the USA and was set up as a resolution to a dispute on about hormone injected beef from the States. Originally it was set at 20,000 tonnes per annum but since then other countries has been added and the size increased.
15/18

Since CETA came into effect last year the 481 quota has been reduced to 45,000 tonnes as Canada now has its own zero-duty quota.

I have been unable to get figures on Argentina's take-up of the 481 quota.

trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/20…
16/18

The second quota (order 094450) is a 20% tariff (lower than the MFN which is over double that for some cuts) for 29,500 tonnes of beef from Argentina. It comes under EU Reg 593/2013 and has a take-up of about 80-90%.

eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…
17/18

So we can't be sure of how much Argentine beed comes in under these quotas but it's likely to be close to the total of 35,000 tonnes imported into the EU, which, remember, is 70% of their exports. But do they need any more than that? Counter-intuitively perhaps not.

Why?
18/18

Well, something I learned when researching this stuff that might be very surprising is that exports are discouraged by the Argentine government. All exports are taxed as a means of maintaining low prices on domestically produced goods, Beef at 15%.

ictsd.org/sites/default/…
Update: The Argentinian export tax policy changed under a new government in 2015. It was remiss of me not to check that. Mercosur are seeking to increase the quota in a new FTA.
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