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Jim Cornelius🇪🇺🇬🇧 #WATON @Jim_Cornelius
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
This really disgusts me. Back in 2015 Owen Patterson was promoting Brexit on the basis that we would leave the "political institutions" but remain members of the EEA/Single Market, possibly joining EFTA and be "big players" at the WTO.

See video in next tweet.
Video part 1/2

He said 4.5-5 million jobs due to the Single Market/EEA. We can be really big players in EEA/EFTA post-Brexit - Owen Patterson from 2015.

Owen Patterson 2019 - Gung-ho WTO.
Video part 2/2

Patterson 2015 - We could become really active in the EEA. Big players on the World Stage and at the WTO.

Erm... Japan's economy is twice the size of the UK's and they get marginalised at the WTO. See follow up tweet.

Patterson 2019 - Gung-ho WTO.
Evidence to a House of Lords committee from @KristenHopewell, Senior Lecturer in International Political Economy at the University of Edinburgh.

Japan's economy twice the size of the UK and they get marginalised at the WTO.

Slight mistake. It's a Commons committee.
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More from @Jim_Cornelius see all

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Where's the rebuttal to Lilley's paper that Dominic Grieve referred to?
Prof Winters article? politics.co.uk/comment-analys…
No that's from August. Same nonsense from Lilley though.
Read 3 tweets
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@_HenryBolton This complete nonsense. The 20% figure is pure fantasy.

On the majority of goods imported into the UK tariffs don't apply because they are imported:

1 From EU
2 From FTA partners at 0%
3 From developing countries at 0%
4 Under a tariff quota at 0%
5 On a 0% tariff rating anyway
@_HenryBolton Before the UK joined the EEC in 1973 we had tariffs and quota restrictions on non-Commonwealth and even some Commonwealth goods that were higher than the EEC's Common External Tariff, and after Brexit we will still have tariffs. The Dept of Intl Trade has no plans to reduce them.
@_HenryBolton EU tariff rates are on the more liberal side compared to other nations and because of EU Trade preferences and free trade deals they do mot apply in many cases.

The World Bank published a report on trade preferences a few months ago.

documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/655…
Read 9 tweets
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@MikeAnson @mkaftermidnight @_JamieWhyte "designed to exclude developing country producers in many product categories"

This is complete rubbish.

This is the UN"s list of Least Developed Countries from UNCTAD (United Nations Trade and Development).

unctad.org/en/Pages/ALDC/…
@MikeAnson @mkaftermidnight @_JamieWhyte Here is a map showing those same countries in blue. Botswana, in green, used to be on the list,

All of these countries automatically qualify for the EU's Everything But Arms programme (EBA) under which all of their exports enter the EU completely tariff-free and quota-free.
@MikeAnson @mkaftermidnight @_JamieWhyte EBA is part of the EU's Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) scheme. Various developed nations have their own version of GSP.

And here, from UNCTAD, is a document which describes each of those GSP programmes and the beneficiary countries.

unctad.org/en/Publication…
Read 11 tweets

Related threads

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1. I've seen a lot of dumb Brexit commentary today from people who should know better. Simple point of fact is that a partial single market is not going to happen. #Brexit thread...
2. The EU is a trade superpower and it will do what it can to stay that way. It is not going to agree to anything that gives the UK a competitive advantage. The EU is all about a balance of obligation - using soft power to promote its own standards and values.
3. That, like it or not, is how it is. It can bend the rules to meet its political obligation to Ireland as a member state but that is as far as it can bend. We would play it the same way were the tables turned. The NI backstop is a freak of legal engineering & they won't expand
Read 10 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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#brexit seems to be all about feeling over fact and this is especially true of the ReesMogg ERG faction of the Tory right.
I never bought the line that #brexit is about Democracy because most of the Tory right had zero enthusiasm for improving democracy in the UK few of them care about unelected house of lords the unfair FPTP electoral system or transparency on the contrary
Most of the Tory right are interested only in constitutional changes that suit them and if anything strive to be as little democratically accountable as possible.
Read 23 tweets
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1) Corbyn & #Brexit
Corbyn wants out of the EU
He's always wanted out of the EU
He wanted out when he "campaigned for Remain"
If he'd been honest and stepped aside to campaign on the leave side (leaving the way free for a "proper" Remainer we wouldn't be in this mess
2) the "Blairites" (or remain supporting MPs if you prefer) knew it,which is why they all resigned following the ref
Non Corbyn supporting Remainers knew it, which is why we've been so hostile to him
Gradually Corbyn supporters have realised it as well
3) some of those Corbyn supporters are no longer supporters as they realised his true #Brexit position

Some have decided that Corbyn is more important than Brexit

But most believed the "long game" theory

Brexit is bad, Corbyn is good
Ergo Corbyn must hate Brexit
He doesn't
Read 8 tweets
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The Chequers plan is dying. May faces rebellion on both sides. She can survive, but not proceed. So what happens next? Some thoughts after chats with both sides.

(Shorter: it's still all about the Irish backstop)

1/Thread
As talks get under way in Brussels today, the EU can:

a) attack - eviscerate Chequers for cherry picking

b) parry - play for time, probe UK real red lines

c) focus on what is deliverable to conclude Withdrawal Agreement in Autumn /2

More here: telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
It is the last of these where smart money lies. Chequers is dying anyway and is a 'future relationship issue'.

The focus is delivering a divorce treaty by 29.03.19 and for this most of work is done.

Except the backstop.... /3
Read 18 tweets
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"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #PeoplesVote #NoDeal #brexit #EU #EU27 #BrexitShambles #customsunion #Lab18 #must #Remain #customs #ProjectFear #Chequers #WTOBrexit #FTA #CPC18 #EFTA #EEA

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