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Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke @kevinhorourke
, 8 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Changing your mind on March 28 2019 and doing so two days later are fundamentally different things...

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
If you are British and think that Brexit will eventually be followed by an application to rejoin, the choice between these two options is a no-brainer: the UK will never again get terms as favourable as what it has now.
If you are Irish the choice between the two options is a no-brainer: Brexit is a disaster for the country, the only question is how bad it will end up being.
But for Europe as a whole, what is the better choice? There the issue is less clear-cut. Avoiding Brexit would save everyone a huge amount of hassle and unnecessary cost. The EU is in many ways stronger vis à vis the rest of the world with 28 members. But...
...the EU would still be stuck with a difficult member in which many are hostile to the EU. We would still have to deal with British psychodramas. The UK would still be a brake on further integration.
Perhaps a better option in the long run would be for the UK to leave, so that its people could finally have an honest debates about the costs and benefits of EU membership. I can see some in the EU thinking this way and who would blame them?
So the fact that so many leaders have gone out of their way to say that HMG is free to change its mind is IMO a real sign of good will towards the UK. Because its current deal is exceptionally good. And it is a very difficult member.
And yet it is not only able to stay on current terms, but it would be welcome to do so. It's a pretty good offer.
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More from @kevinhorourke see all

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@MichelBarnier , @WeyandSabine , and everyone else involved, including on the UK side, deserves huge credit for getting the process to this stage: many congratulations. Given how many red lines had to be navigated it is a massive achievement.
Attention in the UK will focus on the imperfections of the deal but those are merely the reflection of the political red lines - leave the EU, leave the SM, no customs border between NI and GB - that negotiators had to work with.
What Barnier and colleagues have achieved is to construct a pathway towards an orderly Brexit, something that has not always seemed likely. And if a future HMG changes their red lines, the future relationship could be very close indeed.
Read 4 tweets
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@davidallengreen is of course right: if HMG reneges on the backstop it previously agreed this may well lead to a no deal Brexit, considerable economic damage to Member States including Ireland, and the very hard border the backstop was designed to avoid.
ft.com/content/0df643…
Does it follow that the EU was wrong to push the backstop? I don't think so. Avoiding a hard border was identified as one of the 3 key divorce issues and understandably so given the stakes. And HMG displayed bad faith on the issue throughout.
They clearly intended to use the Irish border issue to force the EU to accept no border controls anywhere, despite HMG being free to do trade deals with others, diverging in terms of regulations and all the rest of it. They were incredibly cynical.
Read 7 tweets
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Just a quick reminder. On the backstop, HMG has not only signed up to the December Joint Report, it also agreed in March that...
"a legally operative version of the “backstop” solution for the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, in line with paragraph 49 of the Joint Report, should be agreed as part of the legal text of the Withdrawal Agreement, to apply unless and until another solution is found"
In line with Paragraph 49, NOT in line with Paragraphs 49 and 50.

And NOT temporary: it is to apply unless and until another solution is found.

This concession in March is too often ignored. The source is here:

ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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I have long maintained that a second referendum on #Brexit is the only way out of the UK's current conundrum.

But a few aspects of this have been nagging at me.

Now having been put on the spot by @edaross I am going to explore this a bit more in a thread.

1/17
First, if a #PeoplesVote is to happen, it requires an extension of the #Article50 negotiation period - because it would take a good 20 weeks to organise such a referendum, as @ConUnit_UCL argue convincingly here:
constitution-unit.com/2018/10/09/how…

2/17
At the time of writing we are 123 days, or just over 18 weeks away from exit day 29.3.2019

If Commons has its "Meaningful Vote" (that failing might be the starting gun for a referendum process) on 10 December that is 104 days, less than 15 weeks from exit day. Too tight.

3/17
Read 17 tweets
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1) #ChildRaising & #NARCISSISM
"You Can Be Anything You Want"
Participation Trophies
Instant Gratification
Enabling #HelicopterParents
#LawnmowerParents
#SocialMedia

LEADS TO #NARCISSISM ..and it's DANGEROUS
2) #ChildRaising & #NARCISSISM
Defined: Self-centered, self-important. = Inflated sense of self.
Not necessarily at the clinical level, although some of the most dangerous people fall within this classification.
3) #ChildRaising & #NARCISSISM
Are narcissists insecure "deep down inside"? NO
They have high self-esteem, but only in individual/personal areas, NOT caring traits.
Read 45 tweets
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1/ To understand #Brexit you have to know about the Koch brothers, who are using their $90bn oil and gas & manufacturing fortune to drive US politics in the direction of ultra-free market 'libertarian' economics, & whose influence extends deep into #Brexit politics.
#PeoplesVote
2/ Here is David Koch's program when he stood as a Libertarian Party Vice-Presidential candidate in 1980. Take your time to read it. It is terrifying in its extremism. For example he opposed all income tax. And remember, he and his brother are worth around $90bn.
3/ The Kochs are spending around $400m on the upcoming US elections. The network of think-tanks political organisations they fund and control is enormous. 3 names stand out with regard to #Brexit, the Heritage Foundation, the Cato Institute, and the Atlas (Network) Research Fdn.
Read 9 tweets
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@phoenix_de @guyverhofstadt Die Bürgerrechte der @The3Million sowie @BritishInEurope finden trotz allem zu wenig Gewichtung! Die EU hat nur dann eine Zukunft, wenn sie sich weniger von Lobbygruppen&mächtigen Wirtschaftsunternehmen leiten lässt&ein Bürgerparlament installiert,das mit entscheidet&konrolliert!
@phoenix_de @guyverhofstadt @The3Million @BritishInEurope @Eu27K @julienfouchet1 @inthebrickhouse @fairvoteuk @Lawyers4EU @UKEUchallenge @voiceseurope @AndrewAtter @julie4nw Another problem,UK democracy is hijacked by populists.@guyverhofstadt“Europe has a 5th column in its ranks:Putin's cheerleaders who want to destroy Europe&liberal democracy:LePen,Wilders..use Kremlin money&intelligence. Farage's friend Banks colluded with Russia 2deliver #Brexit
@phoenix_de @guyverhofstadt @The3Million @BritishInEurope @Eu27K @julienfouchet1 @inthebrickhouse @fairvoteuk @Lawyers4EU @UKEUchallenge @voiceseurope @AndrewAtter @julie4nw @julienfouchet1 “Our pan-European movement @Eu27K wants to mobilise people in all of the 27 states so that people understand why the UK is leaving the EU–they don’t know in the memberstates that this Brexit is illegal.We aim 2 create a support committee in each of the 27 states.“
Read 51 tweets
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1. So @AndyWigmore of Leave.EU tweets investigative journalist @CaroleCadwalla to let her know she’s been "tagged” in a tweet from Russia’s embassy in the UK. Let’s have a quick look at the background & semiotics of this… <THREAD>
2. Carole has done great investigative work into links between Leave.EU’s Brexit campaign & Russia. Many of the same actors were working for both #Brexit & Trump – the far-right hedge fund billionaire Robert Mercer, Cambridge Analytica… theguardian.com/technology/201…
3. Andy Wigmore accompanied Arron Banks to a 6-hr meeting at the Russian Embassy in 2015, invited by a man Banks assumed to be a Russian FSB officer. They gave Ambassador Yakovenko the “inside track” on Brexit. It is not known what was offered in return.
buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/ma…
Read 13 tweets
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1) strong message here for remaining #Brexit supporters

You were lied to, you are led by chancers, get a grip
amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
2) Yes, ok, Remain ran a terrible campaign & Cameron was an arrogant fool.
Yes #Brexit sounded easy & even exciting
But, enough's enough
3) whatever happened in the campaigns, this is the reality.
There is no £350 M, #Brexit will cost far more than our membership
Read 13 tweets

Trending hashtags

#child #suspended #ThePatriotTimes #Trump #AlexanderNix #publicly #industry #CambridgeAnalytics #Lesotho #HarryLeslieSmith #PeoplesVote #xenophobia #Hungary #timefortruth #Kushner #PSYCHOPATHS #timefortruths #helpingothers #Charlottesville #Brexit #Psychopathy #underreported #TrumpTower #SocialMedia #ePrivacy

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