Signs you’re in danger of a wave:
1) your voters aren’t turning out
2) your incumbents are getting outraised
3) the other party has candidates in virtually all 435 districts
4) you keep waiting for things to “get better” and they don’t.
2010, meet your mirror image: 2018.
1) your voters aren’t turning out
2) your incumbents are getting outraised
3) the other party has candidates in virtually all 435 districts
4) you keep waiting for things to “get better” and they don’t.
2010, meet your mirror image: 2018.
I could add many more:
5) your incumbents in tough districts are calling it quits
6) voters start caring about your side’s scandals a lot more than your opponents’
7) you recently started voting against your own party/president but voters aren’t giving you any credit
5) your incumbents in tough districts are calling it quits
6) voters start caring about your side’s scandals a lot more than your opponents’
7) you recently started voting against your own party/president but voters aren’t giving you any credit
2010: Year of Angry White Senior (‘08 Obama coalition of young/non-white voters stays home)
2018: Year of Angry Female College Grad (‘16 Trump base of non-college men not showing up)
2018: Year of Angry Female College Grad (‘16 Trump base of non-college men not showing up)
More parallels: House/Senate dissonance. Just as flawed R nominees saved Dem Senate majority in 2010, a favorable map may save GOP Senate in 2018.
The wave is here. So how do you survive if you're the House GOP? Only real option: disqualify Dem opponents on a race-by-race basis w/ a blistering air war in August/September. Why is the next month critical? October's loo late.
