Thread by @Redistrict

Why the slight shift? Let me try to explain what we've observed move post-Labor Day. There are basically 3 large buckets of House races we're watching...

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1057770793969553409

1) Vulnerable Rs in upscale, suburban, Clinton-won "Whole Foods" districts like #VA10 Comstock, #KS03 Yoder, #CO06 Coffman, #MN03 Paulsen, #CA45 Walters, #NJ07 Lance, etc. These Rs are mostly trailing & their numbers haven't gotten any better recently.

2) Competitive races in redder, working-class districts that Trump won by double digits in '16, such as #IL12 Bost, #MN08 OPEN, #NY22 Tenney, #WV03 OPEN, etc. Overall, things have slightly improved in "Trump zones" for Rs, w/ notable exceptions in districts like #KS02 & #ME02.

3) Finally, middle-class burbs where Trump won by single digits that will decide the majority: places like #IL14 Hultgren, #IA03 Young, #MI08 Bishop, #PA10 Perry, #UT04 Love, #WA03 Herrera Beutler. *This* is the bucket where we've seen Dems make the most progress recently.

The fact that many of these "single digit Trump" suburbs - along with Trump-won open seats like #FL15, #NM02 & #VA05 - are now in serious jeopardy is what could push Dem gains into the 30-40 seat range (vs. 25-35 before).