This goes broader than just fundraising too. One theme that emerges from the data is that: it's really not that much of a benefit to be a Republican incumbent. You have to defend Trump. You have to defend unpopular votes on the Ryan agenda (e.g. ACA). Congress is super unpopular.
Ordinarily, as an incumbent, you at least tend to raise more $ than your opponent even if other things go wrong. And sometimes the other party nominates a random weirdo. But many GOP incumbents are getting outraised this year. And the Dem nominees are mostly pretty competent.
Now, it's probably *also* not great to be a Democratic incumbent. But Dem incumbents very have little exposure on the House side. On the *Senate* side, though:😬 That's why I don't think it's crazy to think Dems could make very big gains in the House, but lose a Senate seat or 2.
