Profile picture
Sanjeev Sanyal @sanjeevsanyal
, 8 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Very glad to see former skeptics derive such satisfaction from the new national accounts methodology; even going into the arcane details of how The Committee on Real Sector Statistics suggests a back series on 2011/12 base. Healthy sign of growing economic literacy 1/n
The suggested back series shows that growth had already accelerated to over 8% in 2003/04, following a series of important reforms under PM Vajpayee. Thus, the strong performance of subsequent years had a lot to do with momentum that had already been built up 2/n
It will be argued that the choppy growth performance after 2008/09 was partly due to external factors. Fair point, but surely the same can be said of the exceptionally benign external environment prior to the global crisis. One cannot blame one & take credit for the other 3/n
The real issue was not so much headline growth, but macro-instability and quality of growth. Avg CPI inflation 1999-04: 4.1%, 2004-09: 5.8%, 2009-14: 10.4%, 2014 to now: 4.7% (used World Bank data comparable across time periods) 4/n
The current account as % GDP showed the following trends:
1999-04: + 0.3
2004-09: - 1.1
2009-14: - 3.3
2014-now: -1.2
(Again to for consistency & international comparability, used WB data) 5/n
The above indicators are merely illustrative of trends in macro-stability. One can list out a number of other issues hidden under the headline growth performance during 2009-14: quality of bank lending which was sharply expanded, oil bonds, fiscal deficit and so on. 6/n
An interesting facet of the newly suggested back series is that it consistently depresses growth rates upto 2002-03 & increases it subsequently. One needs to look into what causes this systematic shift. Not suspicious, just curious. All methodologies will have such quirks 7/n
In case you wish to see what credit expansion of the 2005-13 looked like, This is Domestic Credit created by financial system as % GDP (source World Bank)
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Sanjeev Sanyal
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!