1/ some advice on making decisions as a venture capitalist based on what I learned and observed over the years.
2/ First off : you have to really embrace your own ignorance as a starting point. The more successful you are, the more you will tend to think you are right or talented - which is an extremely dangerous behaviour pattern.
3/ Objections to your investment thesis are a GIFT - even if they are poorly expressed by the other party. Treat them as such. If concerns are raised by someone less versed in a topic than you - listen hard. Their intuition might be right.
4/ Pattern recognition is a tool you should use but it is a very blunt instrument. It’s the reason why experienced investors miss new trends: “tried this before, it won’t work” - even when new market factors or tech enablers make success more likely
5/ Similarly data is both friend and foe. Early data, whether good or bad, often has very poor predictive capabilities and / or is not statistically meaningful. As for product design, be data informed but not data driven.
6/ Watch our for overreliance in third party opinions. Off the cuff judgements from highly credible people are particularly dangerous. Keep talking to people in diligence until you have formed a deep, unique and insightful view of a business.
7/ And finally watch out for how partnership dynamics affect your appetite for risk. Your job is to take high upside risk and if you are overly concerned about having to explain a loss, it will skew you away from high upside outliers.
8/ Your job as a venture capitalist is to find exceptional outliers. Everything will conspire to either make you believe you own BS or shy away from what your gut tells you is a great investment. Extreme mental plasticity is hence a skill you better develop and maintain!
