So, re: all this “land swap” talk btw Serbia & Kosovo, let’s spend a few moments deconstructing the magical thinking informing the Kosovo govt’s rush to accept this poison apple of a deal from Serbia.
First off, the premise here is not a territory swap as such, it’s territory for recognition. Namely, that Belgrade will finally recognize Kosovo as an independent state in exchange for Kosovo giving up the north, possibly receiving some southern municipalities from SRB.
But that means Pristina is giving up something 117 UN member states recognize as being an integral part of the territory of the Republic of Kosovo, whereas Belgrade is offering something *it cannot promise*: a seat at the UN.
After all, a seat @ the UN for KOS does not depend on SRB, it depends on Russia who enjoys veto power on the UNSC. So, this cannot be a deal btw KOS & SRB, it is a deal that must involve RUS at an extremely significant level.
That immediately puts the lie to the claim that this deal will weaken RUS’ hand in the region. Precisely the opp, *everything* will depend on RUS acquiescing to this deal. RUS will be the lone deciding power if it really comes down to talks with/in the UN.
And even if Moscow agrees, now they’ve completely flipped the script on Georgia & Ukraine. Now the prob is not RUS occupying their territories, it’s Kiev & Tbilisi for not agreeing to a nice pat swap like SRB/KOS. Implications for BiH, even Macedonia too moving fwd.
In other words, one bad deal will undermine the international state system as such. It’s everything Putin has been driving at since 2008 and, especially, 2014. It completely legitimizes his narrative of the post-Cold War period, intentionally or not.
And, besides, what if RUS suddenly changes its mind? So, SRB/KOS make a deal & RUS reneges just like it reneged on the Budapest Memorandum respecting UKR’s sovereignty & territorial integrity. Then what?
Then KOS has signed over the north to SRB, it has *maybe* received a strip of territory in the south of SRB & still does not have a seat at the UN. A complete & utter own goal, that will only empower irredentist tendencies across the Balkans & beyond. /End
