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Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Most revealing aspect of the Gruevski escape story is how it marks Hungary’s most overt power move in the Balkans to date. Orban has been poking around Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia & Serbia for a while. But this seems designed to poke Brussels in the eye. theguardian.com/world/2018/nov…
Hungary is also the latest foreign illiberal/authoritarian state to make a play to push out or at least diminish already waning EU and US influence in the region. Between Orban, Putin, Erdogan, Xi, and the Gulf monarchs, the Balkans are a geopolitical fire sale these days.
And despite the self-evident absurdity of the claim that the “EU is the only game in town”, too many in Brussels & Washington still persist in the belief that this new “authoritarian international”, as I call it my book, is only a marginal, “spoiler” phenomenon. Foolish.
None of them offer as comprehensive a package as the Euro-Atlantic model but that’s not what the entrenched, criminal elite in the Balkans want anyway. Patronage, patrimonialism, vassalage — that’s the model they know and prefer, and what the authoritarian internationals offer.
Besides, & again as I’ve argued in the book & elsewhere, the Balkan elite are convinced after Ukraine, Brexit & Trump that the West as a political project is over. It’s the return of the strongmen & it’s time to shift allegiances. Orban is just the latest to offer them terms. /x
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There are no exceptional people nor exceptional states. There are only exceptional circumstances. And in these, all things become possible. Tonight, another far-right candidate has triumphed in another democratic polity. This is no longer exceptional, these are our times.
A generation of American & European reporters never quite bought the stories so many Bosnians & Yugoslavs told them; that even on the eve of war, no one believed it. Not here, not in Sarajevo, not in the Olympic city, not where a third of all marriages were mixed. Believe now.
Combine a few yrs of economic, social, and political crisis and every society will become ripe for sectarianism and, ultimately, fascism. Democracies last longer under pressure, and have more procedural and institutional fail-safes. But they are not immune. No society is.
Read 5 tweets
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Obviously Trump’s sudden call for civility is disingenuous. But it’s worse than that: if Ds & the press are truly “enemies of the ppl”/“deep state” as he so often claims, his rhetoric recasts violence against them as rationale, self-defense. It’s a extremist canard.
“Our violence is an act of self-defense and/or a response to *their* (imagined) violence” is the hallmark of extremist movements throughout history. That’s the whole point of dehumanizing your opponents as traitors/heretics; so you can have license to exterminate them.
This may seem like splitting hairs but it’s important: extreme rhetoric invites, indeed, demands extreme responses from those who buy into it. That’s why hate speech/demagoguery are not mere words: they’re clearly calls to action, to mobilization, and confrontation.
Read 5 tweets
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Not unusual for Bosnian politicians to claim they've been cheated of elxn victories. The current din, however, is worrying not only for how widespread it is but for manner in which it's accelerating deterioration of already weak parliamentary norms in dangerous global climate.
I fear ordinary Bosnians & the international community have both grown complacent, believing the improbable suggestion that a fundamentally weak & sclerotic state can continue like so indefinitely. It cannot & contingencies & alternatives must urgently be developed.
The nationalist-authoritarians, and their assorted benefactors from Russia, Turkey, China, and the Gulf states, are already creating the architecture for a post-Euro-Atlantic order in the Balkans. Neither the EU nor the US is seriously invested in curbing these efforts.
Read 7 tweets

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I want to turn your attention to the #Balkans.

Tens of thousands are protesting in #Serbia for the fifth week in a row. Despite the snow and cold weather, despite the censorship in the country, the people want their voice to be heard. I hope the world takes a good look.
Publicly owned communications giant Telekom bought a private cable network Kopernikus (owned by a brother of a high ranking ruling party official) for €200m.

Money was then used to finance the acquisitin of the remaining two foreign owned TV stations with national frequency.
The reasons for the protest:

-wide scale censorship and media control
-beating of @BorkoStef, one of the opposition leaders with metal rods
-eroding democracy and freedom of elections
-shady negotiations with #Kosovo behind closed doors
-corruption
Read 9 tweets
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With much respect to @Jeremy_Hunt, this is a rather ill-advised and selective approach, in my opinion. Our Foreign Office should be focusing on persecution, not a religious group just because the majority of our country's population are affiliated to it.
Let us be clear: this statement does not come out of nowhere. There is a trend, that includes visits by British parliamentarians and public figures to express support for Bashar al-Assad's regime, under the rubric of 'defending Christians'.
Moreover, there are many communities in the Arab world & the wider region that suffer persecution, & we need to focus on the phenomenon as such. Yazidis have been the victims of an arguable genocide. We should be focusing on all persecuted communities, & all types of persecution.
Read 12 tweets
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#Hungary’s filed its doomed claim that 2/3rds of MEPs actually voting doesn’t meet requirement of votes cast.
To condemn a Member State for endangering democratic values, EU Parliament motion needs support of a majority of *all* MEPs, and 2/3rds of those actually voting. >
Hungary’s case is first time CJEU has to interpret law on art 7 TEU procedure. There’s a special article - TFEU 269 - for this. >
Read 5 tweets
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With increased interest in #Croatia due to #WorldCup success, here's a short history lesson about the place:

A Slavic tribe named Croatians came to the area of modern-day Croatia in the 7th century, then promply began having sex with everything that moved for the next 200 years.
Some scientists suggest the word 'Croatian' means 'friend', which, with all the Netflix & chill going on, sounds just about right. Anyway, after 200 years of bow chicka wow wow with anything with a pulse, a modern-day nation of Croatia was born.
Croatia wasn't huge on offensive wars, and if you ever went to the place, you'd know why. Advisers to the king were like, yo, dude, we have one of the most powerful countries in Medieval Europe, and there are bunch of little ones around us to invade. How 'bout Duklja?
Read 21 tweets
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#Slovenia's election last Sunday (a thread) has led to a fragmented parliament. The centre-right Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) has won the most number of seats. (1/6)
Yet, like in most multi-party democracies, it is short of a majority and is likely to find it difficult to find coalition partners to form a government with. Most other parties are vehemently opposed to the SDS and its leader, ex-PM Janez Jansa...(2/6)
who campaigned on a strong anti-immigrant platform. Two right-leaning parties, New Slovenia -Christian Democrats (NSi) and the Slovenian National Party (SNS) are likely to coalition with the SDS, but the three parties would still be short of ten seats to a majority. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
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1/After the shooting in Vegas, we wondered more we could do. We started poking around the NRA website & we were shocked to see how many corporations seemed ok with associating themselves with a divisive, dangerous lobbying organization. #DrainTheNRA was born.
2/We decided we'd focus on local, LA-based @TrueCar. We tweeted, wrote a fancy letter, started a petition & 20 people protested in front of the office on the Sandy Hook anniversary in December. #DrainTheNRA #BoycottNRA
3/We spent the holidays & Jan building our website while watching school shooting after school shooting. Then Parkland happened. Fuck it, let's protest. This Mon, the People's Rally Against Gun Violence in Pershing Sq took place. #BoycottNRA #DrainTheNRA
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