Significant news here: A Canadian government official tells me Canada might well be able to agree to a NAFTA deal by the U.S. deadline of Friday: thestar.com/news/world/201…
Canadian official says the NAFTA deal will likely "come down to a trade" on three issues: Canada gives incremental ground on dairy, U.S. agrees to continue to exempt cultural industries from NAFTA and to preserve the "Chapter 19" independent-panel system for tariff disputes.
Canadian official says there's no doubt the final deal will involve Canada, says "people have gotten lost" in an inconsequential procedural argument about Trump's legal powers to proceed with Mexico alone.
Canadian official says they are still trying to figure out what this 16-year expiry/6-year renewal clause in the U.S-Mexico deal actually is, but the official said their first read is that it's pretty inconsequential, not a dealbreaker for Trudeau like the original 5-year sunset.
Canadian official said they won't give up the supply management system but that they have "a lot of options" in terms of incremental tweaks "to give the Americans what they want." In TPP, Canada agreed to give foreign imports access to 3.25% of the Canadian market.
The Canadian official's message to the U.S.: Trudeau has had the tough internal talks necessary to be able to give ground on dairy, now the Trump side needs to have the tough talks necessary to agree to keep Chapter 19 and the cultural exemption, and then they're very close.
Other stuff:
- Official says none of the three countries cares too much about the government procurement file, it'll get figured out
- Official says they're still negotiating over the extended copyright length/other IP provisions of the U.S.-Mex deal, which Canada doesn't like
- Official says none of the three countries cares too much about the government procurement file, it'll get figured out
- Official says they're still negotiating over the extended copyright length/other IP provisions of the U.S.-Mex deal, which Canada doesn't like
Finally, the Canadian official promises that a Friday announcement would not involve Trudeau's voice being played over speakerphone in Trump's office.
I wouldn’t come to conclusions yet. We don’t have the whole story. Trading some dairy access for preserving Ch19/cultural protection would simply by one of the *final* trades, not the *only* trade - there have been dozens over the course of a year.
Like music and movies. Canada’s government has an extensive system of regulations and subsidies designed to assist “Canadian content.” That wouldn’t be allowed under free trade rules - it discriminates against the US - without the cutltural exemption.
