Context: @mike_giglio had an excellent piece last month on how the #Trump admin may be executing a strategy of "maximum pressure" against #Iran, partly inspired by the book "Victory" & its claim that Reagan used this strategy to defeat the Soviet Union. 2/ buzzfeednews.com/article/mikegi…
There's only one problem: "Victory" is not good history, to put it politely. The most basic critique is that the author didn't have access to US & Soviet archives when the book was published in 1994. You can find much harsher academic critiques online. 3/ amazon.com/dp/0871136333/…
1/ The #Saudi kidnapping of #Khashoggi reminds me of the kidnapping of #Hariri. It is meant to embarrass the other party, this time the gov of #Turkey, and provoke a diplomatic crisis. This is drug Cartel methods. It has no other goal than to assert power over the other.
2/ However, resorting to these methods to assert power in the political and international affairs sphere is always a sign of weakness and a sign of a power in crisis. #SaudiArabia
#InternationalCriminalCourt Today, WH National Security Advisor #Bolton announced the U.S. will cease cooperation with the ICC (agency prosecuting war crimes/crimes against humanity; governments acting the people.) Yesterday, #Putin's government arrested 836 people in Russia.
This is what the Kremlin does to the people: old, young, handicapped, no matter. The images are graphic and disturbing. So is the reality of a mafia state. What is happening? The Russian government siphons money from the appropriated natural resources outside of Russia.
Each year, the Kremlin launders and stores in the Western banks and offshores an estimated 40–50 billion dollars, according to @anders_aslund , a senior fellow at the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council. Estimated Putin's circle wealth: 250 billion dollars.
. @AmbJohnBolton sat down with #Russia's NSC Sec in Geneva for about 5 hours talking international security issues, #Ukraine, #Syria, #Iran. Earlier this year Patrushev was placed on #US sanctions list but said "it was no impediment for him to be meeting [American officials]"
Patrushev says himself & #Bolton failed to sign a joint communique cuz "#US wanted to include the point on "#Russia/n interference" which we didn't find acceptable.We,in turn,asked them to state that US own interference into other states' affairs is unacceptable - they refused"
1/Heated rhetoric between Washington & Tehran over recent days culminate in an ALL CAPS threat from #Trump directed at #Iran's president #Rouhani (flash-back to his tweet in Jan for N.Korea's Kim Jong Un on "bigger & more powerful" nuclear button). Trajectory deeply problematic:
2/#Trump's tweet response to #Rouhani saying yesterday:"America should know peace with #Iran is mother of all peace & war with Iran is mother of all wars".Rouhani left open prospect for diplomacy although SL #Khamenei said on Saturday further talks with US "useless" "major error"
3/In Middle East context Rouhani is right that Iran-US conflict is"mother of all wars".If you thought #Iraq invasion was bad: military conflict with #Iran would be devastating & costly:Iran roughly 4x size & 3x population size of Iraq in 2003.Niether Iran nor US interested in war
2) Avec l'annonce qui vient de tomber où #Trump refuse- après l'avoir considérée- la demande de #Poutine d'interroger des diplomates de #Russie, on peut d'ailleurs considérer la crise post-#Helsinki presque close...
3) Pour la 1ère fois #Trump fut contraint à plusieurs reprises après #Helsinki de se dédire. À cause du désaccord de SES équipes qui ont tracé- pour cette fois- 1 ligne rouge sur #Poutine et la #Russie. Pour les membres de l'administration, l'essentiel est sauf,on peut continuer
SHORT THREAD on the upcoming #Helsinki summit b/n #Putin, @realDonaldTrump. 1. Amidst modest,if not low,expectations on the very deliverables of the meeting it's interesting to see public & back-channel efforts of #Moscow & #Washington to build the agenda for the summit.
3. There's plenty of speculation over what the two will agree on in #Syria - the topic likely to dominate the summit. That said, given what's happening now b/n #Rus#US diplomats it's clear they been tasked to elaborate on broader agenda to make the talks look substantive.
#BREAKING: #Putin just hosted @AmbJohnBolton. #Russia's Defense Minister Shoigu & FM Lavrov were also both present.Putin said the fact that #US-Rus, "not in ther best form" are "result of acute domestic struggle in #America" & that "Rus never sought confrontation"
.@AmbJohnBolton reportedly said he came to discuss ways of improving bilateral rels: "Even in the past when we had seriius disagreements our leaders held meetings which was important for global stability. Prez #Trump committed to reaching this goal"
#Iran Protests courtesy of the #CIA
Jun 25, 2009 After President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won the Iranian Election, riots and protests erupted in #Tehran, The western media was quick to report on this #PSYOPS.
#US politicians, #Israel, #SaudiArabia & media dream of #RegimeChange in #Iran.
Jan 3, 2018 The more intense and violent demonstrations in Iran have given way to patriotic rallies with thousands of Iranians shouting pro-government slogans.
Jan 3,2018 Are the protests in #Iran spontaneous, or are they the result of another #RegimeChange operation?#TheCorbettReport James explores the past, present & future of #US and #Israel-i involvement in Iran, & the attempts to foment unrest in the country.
2) #Breaking Au-delà de l'ironie trop facile, il se peut aussi que #KimJongUn entame réellement, au delà des opérations de fanfreluche #compol, la phase de négociations avec #Trump. Et la fin des exercices US/Corée du Sud a toujours été sur la table. RT+
3)#Breaking Ne pas oublier que #KimJongUn regarde AUSSI la TV US et a très bien compris:
a) l'importance du sommet du 12 juin pour la crédibilité et la popularité de #Trump
b) Tout ce que les #EtatsUnis étaient déjà prêts à lâcher (cf. déclarations de #Pompeo).
Some quick thoughts: It looks like #Israel initiated military activity against Syrian regime and Iranian assets in Syria last night in order to take advantage of favorable political situation in aftermath of #Trump's withdrawal from #IranDeal, and also... /2
/2 to draw a red line against #Iran/#Hezbollah moves southward toward #GolanHeights now that regime has completed takeover of most Damascus suburbs, freeing up forces. Yet the Iranians don't seem to be responding, Israeli claims to the contrary - .../3
3/ or at least not with the ferocity that would enable an even stronger Israeli riposte. Moreover, Israel is constrained by #Russia's two principal red lines: Syrian regime preservation, and no harm to Russian assets and personnel..../4
1) #Trump a toujours 1 sens politique des opportunités qui est très aigu...Il commence sa journée par 1 charge contre l'enquête #Mueller, réaffirmant qu'il n'y a AUCUNE collusion avec la #Russie...ET, 10 ms plus tard...RT
2)...#Trump fait 1 second tweet pour défier la #Russie et lui annoncer qu'elle ne pourra détourner les missiles US qui seront envoyés sur la #Syrie. Comment dès lors envisager en effet la moindre collusion...? RT
3) Il ne faut pas oublier qu'une nouvelle frappe- qui semble imminente- en #Syrie par les Etats-Unis de #Trump donnerait 1 nouvel argument en béton au président US pour liquider #Mueller sur le thème:"Quelle collusion? Assez perdu de temps, regardez ce que j'ai fait en Syrie".
Seems clear where Trump's now headed. He hired diGenova to FoxNewsify his defense. It may work on those already awash in toxic Fox propaganda. But it won't work on Mueller. He'll have to be fired+/Trumpists will manufacture some crisis to end Russia probe. WHERE RU GOP CONGRESS??
UGH John Bolton was seen at the WH today. Is another Fox News blowhard propagandist about to get hired by Trump…to replace McMaster as National Security Adviser?? @ColinKahl is right. We're all gonna die.
What is GOP Congress waiting for? Are they complicit w/ Russia too??