So, it's after Labor Day, and here's where the race for the House stands: 53eig.ht/2PBYuSN
1. Democrats are in their best position in months in both the generic ballot and Trump approval.
2. *Some* of that is probably noise (especially the generic ballot, which is noisy). But an 8-9 point lead for Democrats is plausible, even if they probably aren't up double digits.
2. *Some* of that is probably noise (especially the generic ballot, which is noisy). But an 8-9 point lead for Democrats is plausible, even if they probably aren't up double digits.
3. There's a big difference between an 6-7 point lead and a 8-9 point lead. The former is "we're not even sure who wins the House". The latter is well into landslide territory, with Dems also having a shot at the Senate.
4. District-level polling lags behind other indicators for Dems. It's not *bad*, but looks more tossup-y than landslide-like. However, district-level polls sometimes underrate challengers at this stage because of low name recognition. And Dems have a lot of $ to equalize that.
5. In sum, there's high *potential* for a Democratic wave in the House. Maybe even a big wave. But not very much is baked in yet. Some Republican incumbents will prove resilient and Democrats really have to grind it out on a district-by-district basis.
