Thread by @GabeHoff

Tesla thread: In a little more than 1 hour, @elonmusk is going on @joerogan podcast.

Let's unpack what Elon's objective is, as well as his reason for choosing today.

Joe's schedule is pretty tight: he will be doing UFC 228 in Dallas on Saturday, the weigh-ins are tomorrow

On Tues, Elon said that he would come on Joe Rogan's podcast

Elon chose to reach out & they literally fit this in at the last minute, before Joe took off for Dallas. Why?

4. Elon is one of the most fascinating people in the world. I am personally a UFC fan and a fan of Joe's podcast, he has some amazing people on.

Elon is probably the biggest "get" RN, for a full, unscripted conversation. The average on @JREpodcast is about 2 hours

5. This is the biggest platform Elon will get RN, which is not an actual interview. Joe does NOT interview people. He is NOT a financial guy. He is extremely intelligent & funny, and simply has conversations with people & records them.

6. For Elon, he gets as long as he wants to basically free-form talk about whatever future BS & hype that he wants

Not Q3 or Q4, but the pie-in-the-sky stuff of the distant future

Stuff like @boringcompany $1 rides, Mars trips, pickup trucks, stuff that'll never happen

7. For Elon, this is 1 last, big attempt to create alot of news headlines tomorrow from all the "amazing" stuff promised in the long-term future

To generate a ton of news about ANYTHING BUT Tesla's current operations

Sucker his cult fanboys in one last time to buy $TSLA stock

8. Why now? The SEC is on Elon's case, the heat has really turned up with subpoenas. The BOD called off his "420 funding secured" takeover farce to create a deadline on potential stock holding class aciton lawsuits

9. Elon committed the largest, most egregious securities fraud I have ever seen in my 18 years as a hedge fund manager.

The biggest, most naked example that anyone working at the SEC has ever seen.

10. By now, the outside counsel, BOD, and SEC have all beaten a sense of reality into Elon. He knows he cannot survive much longer as CEO of Tesla. This is his way to go out swinging

11. Expect alot of crazy hype promises about the distant future. Expect Elon to try and generate as many new headlines as possible.

12. Any CEO regularly has conversations with their largest stockholders.

It is obvious to Elon that at least a couple are disappointed with his tripling down on the "pedo guy" slander over the weekend, as well as other outlandish behavior, worried by the balance sheet, etc.

13. At least a couple very big stockholders are trying to unload their Tesla stakes. You can tell how every "pop" in the stock price is met with selling.

14. Today, for example, when Elon RTed some garbage sales "estimate" for August from a website this morning. In the past $TSLA would have gone up 12 & closed on the highs. Instead, the stock quickly gave back everything.

15. What will I be looking for in tonight's podcast?

16. Elon's mental state. Joe Rogan is very into health, and he has a way of making his guests feel comfortable enough to talk about themselves in a more candid-then-usual way.

17. Does Elon give us any hints that he is planning to not be CEO of Tesla in the future?

18. Enjoy the show. Don't believe a thing Elon says. Understand that appearing on @JREpodcast is one of his last "aces on the hole" to get the stock going again.

19. Remember, if the stock falls much further, Elon will face a massive margin call from the banks, they will dump millions of his shares to cover it. Tesla stock would melt down very quickly. Elon is doing everything he can to prevent that from happening. (disc: short $TSLA)

20. An hour in, and Elon has made his 1st crazy Autopilot promise (which won't happen in reality).

21. Elon is definitely buzzed from the whiskey - he has that buzzed perma-grin thing going now.

22. We're just starting the home stretch - last 30 minutes or so

Elon circled the conversation back to electric cars

Joe has "dragged him into deep water" & gotten him comfortable

If Joe has any tough Tesla questions (e.g. parts shortages @criscyborg), they will come soon

23. Joe just poured a fresh glass of whiskey, Elon accepted, and then Joe asked a Tesla question. This interview will be at least another 20-30 minutes.

24. "Nobody cares what porn you watch" - Elon Musk

25. Elon is way too buzzed. He's dragging & Joe is the one keeping most of the conversation going.

26. Joe is now starting with the probing, open-ended questions. "What keeps you up at night".

27. JOE LIT UP A JOINT

28. ELON TAKES A HIT! THIS IS MADNESS!!!!

29. Note: Elon did not cough, he did NOT take that hit like some rookie who never smokes pot.

30. Elon says “I don’t think you would necessarily want to be me”. “It’s hard to turn off”. The filter is off. This is not a happy man.

31. Elon says “he almost never” smokes weed. Which means he does. He took those hits like a regular pot smoker.

32. Elon’s phone started blowing up with texts. About him smoking weed. Tesla BOD will not be happy. The headlines tomorrow will be about how Elon smoked weed in public. Short any pop in the stock. Elon is in his way out as CEO of $TSLA.

33. Reality is setting back in and we are seeing sad Elon again. Joe is trying to pump him back up with humor and compliments, but it isn't working.

34.

35. With some whiskey, marijuana, and 2+ hours of Joe Rogan getting him comfortable & stripping away his facade - we are seeing Elon Musk, the man. He is not a happy man. You see a man who is about to suffer a great fall & knows it & is sad about it.

36. Just as I predicted, this is the headline:

Musk Smokes Weed, Drinks Whiskey on California Comedian’s Show

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

37. Your Turn:

List any public company CEOs who have admitted, or been pictured, smoking weed before. (Yes I know Elon only took 1 hit on camera). Include link or picture. $TSLA Tesla

38. Elon got pretty wasted & had a very late night. Wonder if the plane flies to Fremont or Reno at any point today? cc: @Paul91701736

39. TESLA CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER RESIGNS EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY

He was joined Aug 6th and resigned Sept 4th, less than a month later

TOTALLY UNRELATED $TSLA

sec.gov/Archives/edgar…

40. "Since I joined Tesla on August 6th, the level of public scrutiny, as well as the pace within the company, have exceeded my expectations"

Translation: the SEC investigations and $TSLA's books are scary so I am GTFO here, bye!

41. $TSLA trading down premarket 14 points, or 5%, on 700k shares

Can’t wait to see what @GerberKawasaki tweets about Tesla this morning

42. CNBC PLAYS CLIP OF ROGAN & MUSK SMOKING WEED

THIS IS EPIC $TSLA / Tesla

43. TESLA CHIEF PEOPLE OFFICER NOT RETURNING FROM LEAVE

H.R. Chief leave was just announced last week

TOTALLY UNRELATED $TSLA

44. Tesla stock takes another leg down, $TSLA now trading down 24 points pre-market, almost 9%, on 1.3 million shares

45. Bloomberg Headline:

Tesla Erupts in Chaos as Senior Executive Leave, Musk Tokes Up

CAN'T MAKE THIS STUFF UP

46. Tesla bonds absolutely tanking today, down over 2 points (which is alot for a bond) & up about 0.5% in yield to a new all time high of 8.7% (disc: short $TSLA)

47. Jeff Sessions has nothing on Tesla's Board when it comes to sleeping $TSLA

48. Tesla's CAO resignation was submitted on Tues. Elon knew HR head news would hit today too. Tues PM he booked Rogan's podcast to try & generate some headlines to cover resignation news today. He got a whiskey buzz & ended up taking a hit off a joint. Strategy went up in smoke

49. NEW: Recently departed Tesla Chief Accounting Officer was expected to eventually take over as CFO

cnbc.com/2018/09/07/tes…