1/The hunt for peak oil demand is a worthwhile task, given that half the oil market is already past peak. Here, DNVGL's estimate of a five year timeline chimes in with my own view that 2021 or 2022 will see the first strong signal that demand growth is sharply slowing down.
2/ By half the oil market, I mean this: regions on the left side of this chart are past peak. (Bonus: look at that, an actual use case for the justifiably scorned pie chart). 
3/ Of course, as I point out in my Oil Fall series, it's natural for the word 'peak' to summon thoughts in the mind, thoughts of decline, or even rapid decline. And that's not likely to be the case. Know your domain: growth vs dependency.
4/ One of the strengths of the @DNVGL work is their focus on primary energy demand vs final energy demand. Or, put another way, the massive energy waste we lose to combustion.
5/ Also out of London this week comes further excellent work from the good folks at @CarbonBubble And here, they articulate why the first 5% of market share shift to new entrants can have such a profound effect on incumbents. carbontracker.org/reports/2020-v…
6/ Turns out a good place to see the effects on incumbency is the UK, as it's now a fully post peak nation. Coal (1956), oil (1973), natural gas (2004)--all past peak. Wind, solar, and EV are of course the new entrants.
7/Also, just to point out, while the world has not quite reached peak oil demand, it's obviously the case the last oil cycle is behind us. It ended in 2014, when the oil services sector crashed and never recovered.
8/ The oil industry itself does not agree with the thesis that China and India will replicate the 20th century experience in oil adoption. And their investment spending tells you as much. The future of transport is electric, and the industry knows it.
9/ US gasoline consumption is flat for a third year, and is expected to not grow next year either (EIA). Again, the last oil cycle is behind us. gregor.us/oil/the-last-o…
10/ Every time a new EV is put on the road it makes electricity the new oil. Global EV sales are soaring, for obvious reasons. Where will all that new electricity come from? Most of it, from wind and solar.
11/ It's a surprise even to those who've been following wind and solar since, well, forever, that we are now above the 5% level in China, in the US, in Europe, and globally. That's a take-off point for much faster growth. Example: US is now leaping: 8.2% last year, 10% this year.
12/ Looping back to some of the work done by @DNVGL, as fossil fuel combustion growth slows, then stops, an enormous efficiency gain enters the system. In my Oil Fall series I did these calcs for California. Getting off oil yields a massive energy profit. gumroad.com/l/xVXxQ
In the first six months of 2018, total California vehicle sales fell by 2.2% as sales of EV (BEV+PHEV) soared by 50%. With the total vehicle market in gentle decline, EV (BEV+PHEV) took what percentage of new vehicle sales in California in the first half of 2018?
Poll Results: You all did great. The correct answer is 6.24%. In 1H 2018, California registered 1,004,587 new vehicles, -2.2% YOY. However, BEV registrations were 33,015, +28.8% YOY and PHEV were 29,622, +40.6% YOY. (33,015+29,622)/(1,004,587) = 6.24%
