Thread by @ChartingHockey

Next up at #OTTHAC18: The irreplaceable, inimitable, effervescent, and delightful @IneffectiveMath.

He'll be dancing/talking on "Isolating Individual Impact on Team Shot Quantity and Quality"

"Tired: numbers
Wired: pictures"

- Micah

#OTTHAC18

McDavid and Malkin are the subjects of Micah's interest at the moment: similar shot density maps but extremely different players altogether. So...

Aim: Isolate individual impact on shots for and against (where and how many).

"Treat maps as first-class objects, instead of single-numbers like rates or counts."

Must control for:
- teammates
- opponents
- usage
- score

All outside of a player's control despite mattering to various extents at various times.

#OTTHAC18

"We're going to use computers to count of all this (shots) because counting is boring."

- Micah

#OTTHAC18

Micah's starting point is interesting. He's assuming everyone is league-average (not a player, per se...the league average of all shots, regardless of who took them).

Micah suggests maps as first-class objects again.

How do different players affect how offense/defense moves through different parts of the ice?

#OTTHAC18

"Threat"

2.3 goals is about league-avg (generic skaters, goalies, at 5v5).

Players can be evaluated relative to this.

#OTTHAC18

"Scoring chances are a disaster"

-- Micah is a human quote machine #OTTHAC18

Evgeni Malkin and Connor McDavid generated 2.8/2.9 goals per hour -- 20-25% above league average (that's very good). #OTTHAC18

In Micah's quadrants, the data doesn't centre on average -- that's because he's calculated average based on league totals and elite players are far above average. #OTTHAC18

Primary matchups are decided by trying to get good offensive players in good situations more than getting good defensive players in tough situations.

- Micah
#OTTHAC18

Micah: When games are tied, threat is lower than league-average. There are more shots from the points, fewer shots from in front of the net.

#OTTHAC18

Who is driving score effects - the losing team or the winning team? It's hard to say.

- Micah

On-the-fly shifts lead to lots of extra shots almost to the same extent as offensive zone starts.

- Micah

#OTTHAC18

Isolated talent:
McDavid and Crosby are elite offensively, above average defensively.
Malkin is very good offensively, well below-average defensively.

- Micah #OTTHAC18

Isolated offense

Malkin's "threat": +8.7%
McDavid's "threat": +21.3%

-Micah #OTTHAC18

Score effect isn't as important as I originally thought -- it's often confounded with other factors.

- Micah #OTTHAC18

As a whole, teammates have a much larger impact than competition: five times as much. For specific players, competition impact is still larger than teammate impact.

- Micah #OTTHAC18

Saad: teammates impact was ~neutral but competition impact was negative (i.e. hard)

Kadri: about the same as Saad -- neutral teammates, tough comp.

Thorburn: slight positive teammates, extremely easy competition.

- Micah #OTTHAC18

"Crowd pleasers"

Best offensively -- Crosby, McDavid (way above the next tier!) Josi, Klingberg, Letang, Doughty, Petry, Radulov, Panarin, Vlasic.

Best defensively -- Koivu, Pateryn, Dadonov, Lindholm, Hagelin, Parayko...

- Micah #OTTHAC18

Best 5v5 Net Threat Performers

Dadonov
Crosby
McDavid
Gallagher
Dubois
Parayko
Eberle
Krug
Derek Ryan
Point

- Micah #OTTHAC18

Hardest Minutes last season

Sutter
DSP
Soderberg
Pageau (ruh-roh)
Vlasic

- Micah #OTTHAC18

Most Sheltered

Schenn
Segachev
Bozak
And some others but Micah moves like the wind when he's talking.

- Micah #OTTHAC18