EU leaders won't issue new instructions to Barnier on trade in Salzburg. But a top official says they will do so in October: 'If we take the timetable seriously, and we do, then in Oct we need to come back with something on paper, the EU position based on the debate in Salzburg.'
At Salzburg leaders will develop a 'common understanding' on what the political declaration will say, but they're also expected to issue a strongly worded reminder that without agreement on the Irish backstop there will be no Withdrawal Agreement, no transition and no trade deal.
The discussion on trade will be dominated by whether or not that declaration on trade should be very detailed or deliberately vague, which officials say leaders are still undecided on. One says: 'This is going to be at this stage at the core of the debate in Salzburg.'
This debate splits EU into 2 camps. Barnier & Macron pushing for detail over fears, heightened by Gove, that UK will try to radically change terms agreed once out. But Tusk & some Member States want vagueness to give UK room to evolve position towards Single Market post-Brexit.
Given the time constraints, chaotic state of the debate in the UK and the Commission and Paris' apparently increasingly isolation in their position, the smart money at this stage is surely on vagueness and kicking the decision can further down the road.
