1. The UK has invested huge amount of diplomatic capital in expanding UK-Polish relationship after #Brexit
German MEP on recent visit said Polish officials joking about sheer number of UK ministers who visited/2
Tomorrow May, Hammond and Boris all going. A PM, Fgn Sec and Chancellor in one hit. That's serious diplomatic love. /3
Macron and co (cf recent Barnier remarks about UK deserting EU during terror attacks by voting #Brexit) want to frame Brexit as a values choice. /7
The NIGHTMARE SCENARIO, say Fgn Office sources, is if this comes to vote in European Council over taking steps in Art 7.1 and UK has *casting vote*
Trump, like PiS is populist, and popular.
Trump is also stuffing federal judiciary with placemen (legally) which reminds us that lots of countries have political inputs to judiciary. /8
Instead they launch a process that will only harden and highlight divisions.
It has echoes of decision to use QMV to force through migrant quotas. The liberals felt righteous for a bit, then spent a year sweeping up the mess. /13
It will also very likely, per @AleksSzczerbiak, weaken Polish opposition who will be accused of unpatriotically siding with Tusk/those in Brussels who would do Poland down /14