, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Tomorrow the unemployment claims numbers will be released and people will talk about how they are the lowest since 1969. Just a reminder that this is a Bad Take. 1/
Unlike the unemployment rate, or the prime-age employment ratio, policy changes over time mean that someone eligible to be counted as a receiver of UI benefits today is NOT the same as someone in 1969 2/
Policy changes mean that it's hard to really look at this series over long periods of time. In the graph below, you can see that the percent of the unemployed who qualify for unemployment benefits has been falling over time. 3/
Over a shorter period of time btw, unemployment claims as a percent of covered employment is an interesting series, because it accounts for policy changes. See FRED graph below. 4/
The insured unemployment rate is currently 1.2% - which is the lowest its been in the history of the series. This likely partly reflects who is still currently unemployed - for instance the long-term unemployment rate is still elevated, and those workers won't qualify for UI 5/
Looping back to unemployment claims, @NCSLorg has a really useful interactive where you can see different policies proposed/passed for UI by state, which shows you some of what I'm talking about 6/
In conclusion - UI claims are low! Like many other labor market indicators, they're doing great! But please don't compare them over decades - it's not an apples to apples comparison 7/
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