Here we go then, the most eagerly awaited update of the Brexit Probability Tracker yet, and given the day we're having, the first time this thoroughly unscientific approach may be out of date within minutes. And...
No deal is clearly increased in probability, the PM having said talks are at an impasse, and no deal is not the worst deal. Down slightly are the FTA option (not on offer without a Northern Ireland backstop) or the perma-transition (needs any deal) 
Changes over time here - no deal not yet back to high point of July, since there clearly are options available to prevent it, and in so far as we can tell no change to Parliamentary arithmetic. But is this PM capable of reaching a deal?
(Notes for any new readers. The science of putting non-mutually exclusive options on the same probability scale is not questionable but simply wrong. But somehow it still works as an illustration)
