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Glen Peters @Peters_Glen
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
THREAD (to get you prepared for the #IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C #SR15)

What are the origins of 1.5°C?

cicero.oslo.no/en/understandi…
1987: President of the Maldives: "We know, & yet we keep delaying action. The time for just talking is over."
1988: James Hanson testified "99% confidence"
1988: The #IPCC is born
1990: IPCC First Assessment Report (FAR)
1990: Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS)
1992: UNFCCC "to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system"
1997: Kyoto Protocol
2007: Bali Road Map gives new hope
2008: A limit well below 1.5°C (Tuvalu, AOSIS)
2008: 1.5°C to stay alive
2009: Copenhagen Accord enshrined 2°C in climate politics
2010: Cancun Agreement commits to "review" 2°C
2011: @CFigueres "If we are not headed to 1.5°C we are in big, big trouble"
2015: 2°C is inadequate (Structured Expert Dialogue)
2015: High ambition coalition was born
2015: The Paris Agreement to pursue efforts to 1.5°C
2016: IPCC agrees to a Special Report on 1.5°C
...(scientists overworked for 2 years)...
2018: The #SR15 to be released 8 October, after the the final part of the report "Summary for Policy Makers" is agreed between scientists & policy makers.
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THREAD (The Global Status of CCS)

CCS is moving, but moving way too slowly for for 1.5°C or 2°C.

Even if you are not a CCS fan, worth checking the report by @GlobalCCS to get an update on the current status of CCS around the world.

#COP24 globalccsinstitute.com/resources/glob…
There currently exists ~40MtCO₂ per year capture *capacity* (0.1% global emissions), the vast majority for Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR). It is harder to know how much of CO₂ is stored (not commonly reported or verified), but the estimate here is 200MtCO₂ (cumulatively).
Of the 230MtCO₂ cumulative storage, the vast majority is in the US and for enhanced oil recovery. Norway is the only country (substantially) sequestering CO₂ specifically for storage purposes, where carbon pricing makes it beneficial to store the CO₂. Policy is important!
Read 9 tweets
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THREAD (Global Fossil CO₂ Emissions)

Global fossil CO₂ emissions are on track to rise more than 2% in 2018 (2.7%, range 1.8% to 3.7%). Emissions rose 1.6% in 2017 (leap-year adjusted) after a temporary slowdown from 2014 to 2016.

#CarbonBudget #COP24 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
Countries that need to slowdown:
* China, up 4.7% [2.0–7.4%]
* India, up 6.3% [4.3–8.3%]
* Others (largely developing), up 1.8% [0.5–3.0%]

Countries that need faster reductions:
* USA, up 2.5% [0.5–4.5%]
* EU, down 0.7% [-2.6–1.3%]

#CarbonBudget #COP24 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
There is a broad spread in CO₂ emissions per capita, but for a chance of 1.5°C or 2°C, countries with low per capita emissions also have to reduce emissions.

Yes, developed countries have to do more, but they can’t do it alone!

#CarbonBudget #COP24 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
Read 10 tweets
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Does model bias effect outcomes of the #IPCC 1.5°C emission scenarios #SR15?

The scenario database is over represented by some model frameworks. Taking statistics will over represent some models (eg, REMIND, AIM), discount others (eg @IEA), & not all models included!

THREAD 1/
The bias varies by scenario category, here for 1.5°C scenarios with "no or low overshoot" as highlighted in #SR15. Should REMIND & POLES get more weight then GCAM or MERGE?
2/
I often take medians of scenarios to simplify communication, trying to reveal the "key characteristics" of 1.5°C (trying to find robust messages). The scenario community does not like this approach
3/
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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#Thread sur la publication open source de "La transition énergétique en échec, analyse et perspectives" par des retraités du CEA (Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives)
Via @grunblatt

edp-open.org/images/stories…
“Plus inquiétant encore, sur les quatre dernières années, nous constatons une croissance des émissions de gaz carbonique, principal responsable du réchauffement climatique, de la consommation d’énergie finale, et de la combustion de combustibles fossiles (charbon, gaz, [etc.]).”
“Ce bilan est une occasion de s’interroger sur la pertinence de la politique du pays et des objectifs de la LTECV []. Une idéologie fermée, adepte de la décroissance et résolument antinucléaire, doit-elle continuer à dominer ?”
Read 53 tweets
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#Thread: Rough translation on Rajini's recent statement on RMM activities.

I'd like to clarify the false rumors stating RMM works are happening without my permission. All activities regarding RMM are happening with my knowledge & permission.

#RajinikanthPoliticalRevolution
Already by last year May month, I said that "I won't allow people near me who have thoughts of getting posts & earning money when I enter politics. So, those people stay away right now."

#RajinikanthPoliticalRevolution #Thread #Rajinikanth
Didn't say it for word-sake. We are entering politics to bring out a new political culture for a good political change. If we've to do politics like others, why should we enter politics?

#RajinikanthPoliticalRevolution #Thread #Rajinikanth
Read 15 tweets
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The #IPCC #SR15 report says very little about solar #geoengineering, which is the main, but not only subject, of my book #ThePlanetRemade beyond saying that there is high agreement that a particular form of it could keep temperatures below 1.5C (Cross chapter box 10 in Chapter 4)
If the IPCC not going into this more seems an odd omission, given the topic, I think it is because a) the scientific understanding on solar #geoengineering, which obviously will never be complete, is still pretty sketchy in many respects (though not as sketchy as some may think)
b) the structure that the IPCC chose for the report (which was forced on it in part by the UNFCCC's mandate to it) did not allow it o assess solar #geoengineering's potential contribution in any of its scenarios
Read 7 tweets
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1/ What role for natural gas in a 1.5⁰C world?

Some reflections from the new #IPCC #SR15 report:

(thread)
2/ A reminder: natural gas currently accounts for 20% of global energy emissions and is the world’s fastest growing fossil fuel. In the IEA’s current policies scenario, gas demand could increase by ~50% by 2040.

How far is this from a 1.5⁰C pathway?
3/ With coal, the IPCC message is simple: stop burning it. The IPCC pathways show a reduction in coal in primary energy use of 59-78% by 2030, compared to 2010. By 2050 it falls 73-97%.
Read 11 tweets
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#Thread Quelques étapes historiques du "capitalisme", avant que ce nom ne lui soit donné.
Un contradicteur me disait hier en substance: "il est faut de dire que les découvertes sont favorisées par un système capitaliste (comprendre: capitaliste et libéral), de nombreuses découvertes ont eu lieu avant l'avènement du capitalisme".
C'est un contresens historique.
Certes, le terme capitalisme, apparu sans doute au XVIIIe siècle, fut popularisé par Marx au XIXe avec une connotation éminemment péjorative. Mais le capitalisme a existé de facto avant qu'un nom lui soit donné.
Read 43 tweets
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#Thread

STATE HOUSE PRESS RELEASE:

The Presidency rejects allegations of opposition politicians, as well as some newspaper editorial opinions creating the impression that President Buhari is against the use of card readers in the upcoming elections,... (Cont’d)
... hence his decision to decline assent, for the 3rd time, to the Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill 2018.

We wish to state in clear & unambiguous terms that the issue of e-voting and use of card readers was NEVER an issue for the President’s decision to decline assent to the Bill.
It is equally important that this issue was not raised either by the Executive or the Legislature in the recent reviews. Moreover, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) adoption of e-voting reforms is enshrined in the 2015 Amendment Act to the Electoral Reform Act.
Read 13 tweets

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