Thread by @Peters_Glen

THREAD (Global Fossil CO₂ Emissions)

Global fossil CO₂ emissions are on track to rise more than 2% in 2018 (2.7%, range 1.8% to 3.7%). Emissions rose 1.6% in 2017 (leap-year adjusted) after a temporary slowdown from 2014 to 2016.

#CarbonBudget #COP24 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…

Countries that need to slowdown:
* China, up 4.7% [2.0–7.4%]
* India, up 6.3% [4.3–8.3%]
* Others (largely developing), up 1.8% [0.5–3.0%]

Countries that need faster reductions:
* USA, up 2.5% [0.5–4.5%]
* EU, down 0.7% [-2.6–1.3%]

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There is a broad spread in CO₂ emissions per capita, but for a chance of 1.5°C or 2°C, countries with low per capita emissions also have to reduce emissions.

Yes, developed countries have to do more, but they can’t do it alone!

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The growth in 2018 is driven by a return to strong growth in coal use, & continued stable growth in oil & gas use.

(We do not have a global projection of coal, oil, gas for 2018, but we know what will happen in the top-4 emitters)

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Renewable energies (particularly solar & wind) are growing exponentially, but the growth has been too low to offset the growth in coal, oil, & gas use.

Supporting renewables is great, but we need more to stop emitting CO₂.

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What drives growth in fossil CO₂ emissions?
•Economic growth (purple) is offset by energy efficiency (blue) to give energy use (green)
•Energy growth (green) is offset by carbon efficiency (orange) to give CO₂ (aqua)

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Fossil CO₂ emissions continue to growth because energy & CO₂ efficiency (energy & climate policies) are insufficient to overcome economic growth.

Ramp up the policies, otherwise emissions will continue to rise...

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To meet objectives of the Paris Agreement, CO₂ emissions need to peak as soon as possible, followed by rapid declines, reaching net-zero emissions sometime after 2050, & then removing CO₂ from the atmosphere at scale.

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Thank my colleagues, but especially @robbie_andrew on the graphical material & analysis, & @clequere for driving the process.

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Grab the data and figures here, thanks to @robbie_andrew folk.uio.no/roberan/GCB201…
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