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Joe Owen @jl_owen
, 3 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Seeing as today is actually 6 months to go until Brexit, read our @instituteforgov paper from a few weeks ago setting out where things are at

We were asked by @BBCNews @BBCRealityCheck to assess progress - including Red/Amber/Green ratings
There is an excellent summary of the report by @BBCChrisMorris here:

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
And since then we’ve* done this attractive/alarming table summarising no deal notices

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/charts/what-go…

* @timd_IFG @lewisalloyd @AAIacobov @ThimontJack @melissaittoo
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Quick thoughts on immigration white paper. Whatever you think of policy - it’s probably one of/the best Brexit white paper in terms of detail/supporting analysis, it swerves a couple of very very tricky or very very political issues
The white paper dodges the question of net migration target (as Sajid Javid tried to on the radio) by not mentioning it but cross referring to the Conservative Party manifesto… which does have 100,000 target.
It also dodges what happens after March 2019 if there is no deal? DExEU have said what happens to citizens already in UK, nothing yet from govt on EU citizens arriving after Mar19
Read 16 tweets
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As the Cabinet finally makes some decisions on no deal planning beyond "technical notices" - worth pointing out how little this meeting has actually changed...

(Spoiler - not very much...)
Firstly - the money

This £2bn will make a grand total of zero difference to the UK's readiness for no deal.

Why? Because it's for the year 2019/20. So not a penny will be available to departments until the UK has left the EU.
It will be helpful as the UK continues to adapt to life after EU in '20.

We were told by officials that base no deal plans for 2019 aimed *ensuring the UK did not break international law* - so that leaves plenty of room for improvement.

But that doesn't help for March.
Read 13 tweets
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If you want to understand how ready - or not - the UK is for 'no deal', you should read this NAO report.

nao.org.uk/wp-content/upl…

It shows just how much work is happening inside Whitehall - v impressive against any normal standards - but...
It also shows very clearly how nightmarish the politics, risk, complexity and timelines are. You can't deliver major projects with that toxic combination of problems

Defra is responsible for:
- 1 in 6 Brexit workstreams
- 1 in 8 statutory instruments
- 1 in 3 Brexit Bills
It also has a role at the border, working with devolved administrations,engaging wide variety of orgs incl NGOs, farmers, supermarkets, doing trade policy, devising ambitious new post-BRexit policy in agri/fish.
Read 6 tweets

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9/17: Manafort working on "Kurdish referendum"

"...the Kurdish referendum, scheduled for Monday, would not immediately trigger independence, the American gov't and the international community have expressed serious concerns about it. "
"They fear that, if it passes overwhelmingly, as expected, it could further destabilize Iraq, damage the coalition fighting the Islamic State, and potentially spark violence in disputed areas."
"...the State Department urged Kurdish leaders “to accept the alternative, which is a serious and sustained dialogue with the central government, facilitated by the United States and United Nations, and other partners.”
Read 43 tweets
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Good morning. Today seems like a good day to tell you about my conversation with a brexiter, that I had a few weeks ago.
That day I was told to my face that #brexit means they can finally switch out all those EU migrants with better foreigners. /1
This person knew that I am one of "all those EU migrants". And while I've been told way too many times to count that I should "go home" or "go back where you came from", being told that I can and indeed will be "switched out" for something better was a new one to me. /2
There has been a shift, a reframing going on for a while. Back in the early #brexit days, any foreigner was bad. Then followed the phase of bad EU migrants (e.g. "those Poles! Those Bulgarians!"...) and good ones ("we don't mean you!, You'll be fine"). /3
Read 18 tweets
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Out today! My new, chart-rich paper on trade, globalization & US public opinion:
cato.org/publications/f…
So now a thread on why I wrote this paper - the data for which were surprisingly difficult to gather (thanks, @pewresearch, @Gallup, @ChicagoCouncil, etc for the help!) - and what it reveals /2
The malleability of US public opinion on trade is something I first noticed years ago (and briefly discussed in this paper from 2011: cato.org/publications/f…). Trade polls have long fluctuated depending on politics, rhetoric & the economy. /3
Read 20 tweets
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Don’t fall for the ‘Incompetence’ message they’re trying to push to distract from ‘Corruption’. Nigeria’s largest-ever Social Welfare Prog @NSIP_NG, 6 million new TaxPayers, new $650m Infra Fund, attracting billions of $$$ in Agric Investments — AIN’T a definition of Incompetence
Let’s break it down a little bit. The @NSIP_NG: Nigeria has never had a more ambitious Social Welfare Programme, targeting the most vulnerable. 500,000 @npower_ng, more than 8 million kids for @NHGSFP, more than 300,000 households for @HUPcct, and 2m for @Trader_Moni by year-end.
Infrastructure: 2 major rail lines COMPLETED between 2015 & 2018, & during a recession. Abuja—Kaduna & Abuja Metro. No rail project completed between 1999 and 2015.

Another 2 standard-gauge Rail projects in progress. Ajaokuta-Warri and Lagos-Ibadan. I’ve visited both. See my TL.
Read 23 tweets
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THREAD. UK #Brexit negotiators are publishing a LOT of documents in the talks this week. There's the very punchy paper on Galileo that everyone's talking about with the warning that it'll cost €1bn without the UK and contravenes the December Joint Report. (1)
The UK has also tabled an analysis of 30+ Justice & Home Affairs measures from the European Arrest Warrant to football hooliganism, spelling out the "capability gaps" if the UK is treated as a third country (as mentioned in the security presentation given a few weeks ago) (2)
And finally (for today) there's a UK wish-list for how to co-operate on foreign and defence policy. Basically a LOT of consultation, including a weekly meeting between the UK and the Political and Security Committee, and ad hoc meetings with the Foreign Affairs Council. (3)
Read 3 tweets
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{thread} A group of insane Star Citizen chuckleheads, who became lawyers on 12/12/17, are parked on Reddit (where else?) claiming that the judge didn't rule on the CryTek v RSI/CIG MtD yesterday because both sides asked here not to.

It's pure and utter nonsense.
These are the same nutters who didn't even give the female judge a passing glance nor mention this whole time.

Until they read my research (below) thread a few days ago.

Now they're actually referring to her on a first name basis.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/9616290…
It all started when I posted this, shortly after finding out on Jan 8th, that the judge had vacated the much anticpated Jan 9th hearing on the motion.

Read 22 tweets

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