I never thought this was possible—in fact, I basically guaranteed it wouldn’t happen—but I no longer think it is out of the realm of possibility that McConnell will try to move the Kavanaugh nomination and lose a floor vote.
This is not to say that I think the Kavanaugh nomination is destined to fail at this point—just that if it does, it may happen on the floor, rather than via being withdrawn.
The typical move when a nomination does not have the votes is to just drop it, never take it up, and have the nomination withdrawn so a new one can be sent up in its place.
Indeed, this is almost always the case: very, very few nominations fail on the floor. It’s one reason it’s not smart to use floor votes as measures of party support for POTUS noms: the failed noms don’t get voted on, they get withdrawn.
But in this case—a high-profile SCOTUS nominee, with a substantial set of backers who seem dug-in—it might now be easiest/smartest for the leaders/POTUS to dispose of the nomination by having it fail on the floor.
Why is that?
Why is that?
Mostly, because it would provide someone to blame. In Trump-world, withdrawing the nom is giving up. But Flake, Collins, and Murkowski defeating it would shift the blame from leaders/POTUS, who could say they did everything they could (whether or not they actually did).
Second, it would provide some finality, and allow the GOP to move on. As in business, it’s better to Fail Fast. If you wait on some glimmer of getting the votes two weeks from now, you may just be wasting time that could be used on the new nominee.
Third, it would freeze the debate over Kavanaugh’s actions at a point where they are debatable. Once the nom failed, media/public interest will fizzle. If the charges against Kavanaugh are ambiguous, political blame can still be placed on the Dems/media/etc.
If it’s going to fail, better for that to happen before public opinion fully turns on Kavanaugh and he becomes a complete embarrassment for the GOP (not that such an outcome is certain, or even probable. Just that’s it’s a possibility).
And, of course, there’s an electoral benefit to getting the red-state Dems to vote no. Without a floor vote, Manchin, Donnelly, Heitkamp, are let off the hook on a tough vote.
