Just a reminder that the vote that's happening right now is a vote invoke cloture—to limit debate and move to a vote on the nomination. Voting yes now (as Collins, for one, will do) isn't a tell on your vote tomorrow.
That said, Murkowski voting no is ... quite interesting.
(Collins announced before the cloture vote that she was voting yes on cloture but wouldn't announce her vote on the nomination itself until later today.)
Voting no on cloture is verrrrry close to an announcment that you're voting no on the nomination, so if you're undeclared and want to keep people in suspense, you likely vote yes on cloture—as Collins, Flake, and Manchin did.
Also interesting: Manchin didn't vote in the first round on cloture. He waited until after it was clear that his vote wasn't needed to get to 50, as many have said he's likely to do on the final vote tomorrow.
So IF Murkowski is a no, as appears, and IF Manchin won't vote yes unless there are 50 other votes, and IF Flake votes yes, as he previously indicated he would, then it all comes down to Collins. Who's giving a speech at 3pm this afternoon.
And since folks are asking, if Daines' vote is needed to get to fifty, they'll hold the vote open for him until tomorrow night, or even Sunday morning if they have to. Don't read anything into his absence tomorrow afternoon.
