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Tren Griffin @trengriffin
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
"there’s a supply of investor error. A factor can go away from either the supply or the demand side. It can go away from too many people trying to exploit it. There’s a finite amount of error out there. Or it can go away from that error clearing up." bloomberg.com/news/features/…
ES: Why have quants done so poorly of late?
CA: "The big culprit on the year is systematic value investing. That one has been bad for quite a long time, probably since just after the financial crisis."

Seems possible that this factor has changed since the economy has changed.
How has the economy fundamentally changed? Bill Nygren of Oakmark writes about it here: oakmark.com/Commentary/Com… "the economy has become more asset-light"
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"According to the survey results, the median pay for full-time writers was $20,300 in 2017, and that number decreased to $6,080 when part-time writers were considered. The latter figure reflects a 42 percent drop since 2009, when the median was $10,500."
In my blog post on writing books I wrote: "6. Don’t expect to earn more than the minimum wage and be thrilled if you earn more." google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
"In Mémoires (1759), Voltaire recalled how in his youth he had come across so many writers who were “penniless and held in contempt” that “he had decided not to add to their number.” laphamsquarterly.org/luck/voltaires… "Thanks to his fortune he was free to pursue his writerly life."
Read 3 tweets
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"Companies can lose a lot of money in their early years but be wonderful businesses if they are acquiring customers with long lives and strong variable margins."

But some businesses just do the losing money part. A critical skill is knowing the difference between the two types.
Customer-based corporate valuation (CBCV) = valuing a business on a "bottoms up" basis by valuing the customers. In a subscription business especially, this is an essential process if you want to understand if real value is being created despite a lack of current GAAP earnings.
"CBCV isn’t about being profitable from day one. It’s about variable profitability in net present value terms (while still being mindful of fixed cost overhead of course!)" Determining whether a specific business is a delicious cheesecake or a turd requires detective work.
Read 6 tweets
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“The Fasten Seat Belt sign is now illuminated. If you haven’t already done so, please check your cash and cash equivalent balances. Please lower your burn rate and make sure your defensive investments are in their full upright position.”
“If you find yourself needing an emergency exit from illiquid investments, please read carefully the special instructions card. Cash is more king than ever. If you can’t handle the haircut you are about to experience, please ask someone to do the selling to raise cash for you.”
“We remind you this remains an uncertain and no sympathy correction. No one knows anything for sure as is usual. Crying and whining is prohibited, including in the lavatories. Tampering with, disabling or destroying your brokerage statements is pointless and prohibited by law.”
Read 5 tweets

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So, I've waded through the Evangelical Alliance's new pastoral "guidelines" for interacting with trans people (ughh, the things I do to expose #transphobic #ciswits to the world), and let's just say it's time to tear this particular sh*t-bag a new hole.

1/n
CW: #Transphobia, #ConversionTherapy, #Zucker, #Religiously #driven #zealotry

2/n
So, straight off the bat, first page of text, the use of #language is . . . well, yeah, see for yourself:

"It is important to remember that transgender is not simply an issue to be debated;" - p5, #Transformed

*sigh*

When such language gets reinforced by insisting...

3/n
Read 176 tweets
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@elonmusk is a Patriot. I'm 100% convinced. MSM sure won't report it. Famous liberals won't report it. One thing they will do though. Comment on twitter when the get triggered and worried.
Some notable replies....
Read 7 tweets
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@PhilipPullman Hey Philip. Let me ask you this: are you on the side of, I dunno, the Dutch? Ultimately we're just another kind of person, and it's frustrating to have my existence framed as one side of a debate. Because that's really not it at all.
@PhilipPullman Like, lemme put it like this: I wake up in the morning, get ready for work, hop on the subway, do my job, maybe hang with friends, head home, and go to sleep. I'm just trying to live my life, and for some reason there's a big-ass contingent of people who want to make it harder.
@PhilipPullman Like, why? What the hell is the point? Because they imagine feminism is a zero sum game where rights for us means losses for cis women? Because we're icky? Because the Bible says men can't wear women's clothing? What kind of debate is this?
Read 12 tweets
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Today in Uncomfortable Topics: Let's talk about cheating and abuse, because people often expect abuse survivors to act like impossibly saintly creatures from Victorian novels.

We're just people, however, and cheating to cope (or, more accurately, "cope") with abuse is a thing.
Abuse is about control, and cheating can seem like a sensible solution when you're scrambling to get a semblance of control back. There is also the fact that abusers convince you you're "bad." My ex interrogated me about other men on a regular basis. Cheating began to make sense.
Besides the interrogations, using other women in order to control me was a habit of my ex, and, the more I talk to other people who had survived abusive situations, the more I see how common this behavior is. I was always being compared to other women in his life & found wanting.
Read 14 tweets
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I struggled on how to present this recent political/MSM history. Many will attack me, but I’m taking #ConnieChung advice to tell the truth. In no way do I minimize sexual assault (including hers) or victims of any kind of assault.

In 2001 Connie Chung assaulted me. (1/59)
Her behavior as a journalist is as relevant today as the assault on her. It’s not about whether one assault is real or worse. It’s about how MSM blindly assaults people & uses victims to advance agendas. It’s about clean hands & what America was talking about before 9/11. (2/59)
It’s about the need to DRAW A LINE on our private lives w/ the press. The poison to our country / community is not just what all this unhinged talk of accusations does to our discourse. It’s the real discussions that are PUSHED OUT of the public square by it. (3/59)
Read 61 tweets
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I’m a mother of six, and a Mormon. I have a good understanding of arguments surrounding abortion, religious and otherwise. I've been listening to men grandstand about women's reproductive rights, and I'm convinced men actually have zero interest in stopping abortion. Here's why…
If you want to stop abortion, you need to prevent unwanted pregnancies. And men are 100% responsible for unwanted pregnancies. No for real, they are. Perhaps you are thinking: IT TAKES TWO! And yes, it does take two for _intentional_ pregnancies.
But ALL unwanted pregnancies are caused by the irresponsible ejaculations of men. Period. Don’t believe me? Let me walk you through it. Let’s start with this: women can only get pregnant about 2 days each month. And that’s for a limited number of years.
Read 63 tweets

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