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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
This is pretty interesting
With a generic ballot lead of D+7 or so, it's very possible for polls to about right overall, but for Dems to lose the House because the GOP ekes out wins in lots of the tossup districts. Once you get up to D+9 or so, the dam breaks and GOP would need a systematic polling error.
We have the D's generic ballot/popular vote lead trending toward +7.5 or so. So while the topline numbers in our House forecast haven't changed much, we've crossed an important conceptual threshold where the eke-it-one-district-at-a-time scenario is back on the table for the GOP.
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Also, a lot of primary campaigns don't feature major differences among the candidates on policy. Clinton and Obama had very little to divide them in 2008, for example.
Elections are mostly *not* about wonky arguments over policy. Or to put it another way, you could have exhaustive coverage of the candidates' policy positions and still have plenty of time left over for the horse-racier aspects of the campaign.
So while I'm a huge fan of some of the people making this critique (e.g. @jayrosen_nyu and @Sulliview), I find "cover elections thru policy, not the horse race" to be a bit of a red herring. The argument should really be about whether there's too much *election* coverage, period.
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Not sure this is a fight worth getting into but FWIW, as someone who knows a relatively large amount about New York restaurants, this claim—that the restaurant where AOC worked was put out of business by a minimum wage hike—is dubious at best.
The restaurant, Coffee Shop, was closed mostly it occupied a lot of square footage and because rents are very high in Union Square, where it's located. A ton of restaurants in that area, including the iconic Union Square Cafe, have recently closed or relocated.
The owner did cite the minimum wage as one of a "combination of factors", but also said most of his employees were already making above the NYC minimum wage. Also, the concept was pretty dated, and the restaurant was poorly reviewed on Yelp, etc. fxn.ws/2F8ds1T
Read 4 tweets
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My basic view on Warren's chances is bearish. For whatever reason (she's seen as old news? the DNA test? sexism/she reminds voters of Hillary?) her polling has been quite poor especially given her high name recognition. Her margins of victory in MA also have also not been great.
BUT you could make a decent "buy low" case on Warren. She probably has a better chance than Sanders of bridging the gap between the left and the party establishment. She's always raised a ton of money. Voters know what she stands for. Women did well in the 2018 primaries.
Not exactly the right analogy, but Warren's path to victory might be something like McCain's in 2008, who was left for dead by pundits at certain early points in the nomination process, but was fundamentally a strong candidate and eventually benefited from a "comeback" narrative.
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Interesting group flying out of Texas
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Anyone who calls last night a split decision is just wrong. Here's what happened (thread):

We flipped at least 29 House seats - and very likely will flip several more over the coming days. Dems now control the House.

We flipped 7 governor seats.
We flipped 6 state legislative chambers - and 7 since Trump took office.

We broke 4 Republican super-majorities in state legislatures.

We flipped 3 state Supreme Court seats.

We flipped 1 Senate seat in Nevada - and all our Senate losses were in states that Trump won in '16.
We've flipped more than 330 state legislative seats this cycle.

In WA, we're leading in 7 Republican-held state house races, 2 Republican-held state senate races, and are very close in 3 more. And we're on the brink of electing @DrKimSchrier and flipping the 8th Congressional.
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Ok ladies and gents. This thread will be about today’s hearing at the Senate involving Facebook and Twitter.
Please keep your hands and legs inside the thread at all times. Exits are located on the front left and right sides of the thread.

Enjoy the show.
Jack’s opening statement is here if you want to read it beforehand docs.house.gov/meetings/IF/IF…
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Democrats Fight #GOP Culture of Corruption to Make Washington Work for the People/1 #VoteBlue2018 #Midterms #Democrats #DemsWork4USA #WhyIVoteDemocrat It’s a vintage button with a donkey kicking an elephant saying “Kick out Depression with a Democratic Vote”
This week’s indictment of #GOP Congressman Chris Collins shines a stark light on the rampant culture of corruption and self-enrichment among #Republicans in Washington today/2 #Collins #CorruptGOP #SwampThings
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