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𝐆𝐫𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐲 @GrayConnolly
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
As per usual @JamesHasson20 hits the bullseye

My sincere congratulations to whoever wins the House Popular Vote in tomorrow's US elections albeit I am not sure it is worth rioting over tbqh

I forget how lava-like some of 2018's takes on the "popular vote" are

The whole point of a Federal system is that there is no national popular vote.
Legitimacy comes only from winning support in the federating territories.

Anyone advocating a national popular vote for a territorially large and disparate polity is advocating a system designed to allow the urban to overawe the rural and for the latter to violently rebel in due course
For large geographic states - eg the US, Canada, Australia etc - the Federal system is not an alternative to democracy but an alternative to an inevitable fragmentation & esp provincial rebellions against the city. When the capital seeks to rule all, the regions rebel and fight
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More from @GrayConnolly see all

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Good morning all on this 32nd Sunday in Ordinary Time and #RemembranceDay2018 , the 100th anniversary of the Great War's Armistice.
(Mass for Allied soldiers in a gully on the Gallipoli Peninsula, Sep 1915)
As today (11 Nov 18) is #RemembranceDay #ArmisticeDay100

Please buy a red poppy & help ADF veterans & families

remembranceday.org.au/about-us/remem… …
Australia's Great War (1914-1919)
- 5m population
- 416,809 men enlisted
- more than 60,000 killed in action
- 156,000 wounded, gassed, or taken prisoner
Read 10 tweets
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I still cannot believe that General David Petraeus would have an extant security clearance. He was caught sharing highly classified matter with his mistress & had a criminal conviction. How Petraeus could still have a valid security clearance is insane. Does Hillary Clinton?
If David Petraeus still has a security clearance after both sharing highly classified material with his mistress & incurring a criminal conviction, then the whole thing is a complete joke. Hillary is probably consulting on communications security.
The worst aspect is that, across the Western world, ranks and Govt positions are traded off now in a way considered gauche and unthinkable not long ago. Retired officials/military officers want to maintain their clearance for access to contractor jobs & corporate advisory roles.
Read 5 tweets
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An example of how broken and Trump-centric all the "Russia" hysteria is that none of the serious media have looked at Manafort's Hapsburg (yes, sic) group & their activities in central Europe in support of Russian objectives in context of Trump's tirade
dw.com/en/european-po…
When the final history of this era is written re "Russia", the account will begin in the Soviet collapse & the rush of largely American vagabonds into the Soviet ruins to work with oligarchs, which then became respectable as the state distributed access to Russian energy.
Putin's rise as Yeltsin's fixer and Russian grievance avenger will be the middle. Missed will be how much Putin terrorised the oligarchs as much as Putin coopted them (why sanctioning oligarchs has no real effect on Russian behaviour). And how dumb Iraq-Libya was for RU-West
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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1. Trump is in a considerably weaker position than many people realize. If he loses any support from Republicans, his presidency could easily enter the sort of vicious spiral that Bush's did in 2006-8 or, perhaps more relevantly, Nixon's did in 1973-4. nytimes.com/2019/01/06/opi…
2. Let's start with the numbers. At Trump's current approval rating (about 40%), the GOP was trounced in the midterms. It lost the House popular vote by almost 9 percentage points.

By comparison, no presidential race has been so lopsided since Reagan '84.
3. This is a problem for Senate Republicans, especially those running in 2020. Remember: presidential-year turnout tends to help Democrats. Turnout in 2020 is likely to be at least 10 million votes higher in 2020 than it was in 2018.
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If polls are right, Democrats project to win the popular vote by 8-9 points on Tuesday. That's a lot; bigger than the GOP margins in 1994 and 2010.
Because of how voters are distributed (and in the House, gerrymandered) and which Senate seats are up this year, that probably won't be enough for Ds to get it done in the Senate, and the House is far from a sure thing. But that would be a fairly impressive showing.
The reason I say "pretty impressive" is because opposition parties usually do well at the midterms. Democrats are on track for an above-average but not spectacular performance (again, if polls are about right).
Read 7 tweets
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1. Since I'm up late, an *extremely* nerdy thread...

The aggregate popular vote for the U.S. House—which is basically what the generic ballot is trying to measure—is a useful benchmark for the national environment in Congressional races, but it suffers from a couple of flaws.
2. One is that whichever party did better in the prior election has more incumbents, and therefore overperforms in the popular vote relative to if everyone was starting from scratch. It can be useful to separate out the incumbency advantage from the partisan environment.
3. Another is that the popular vote is sensitive to how many districts a party manages to nominate a candidate in. If you fail to nominate someone in a few dozen districts, that can you a couple of points in the popular vote, even if the districts wouldn't have been competitive.
Read 7 tweets
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1/
 NEWSFEED --- May 7th, 2018 -- Monday

How much does @kanyewest scare the
@DNC and @Democrats

Part 1/2 - "Free Thought Is for White People" - @TheRoot

Article LITERALLY argues Black People are incapable of Free Speech.
Totally not kidding.
👇
theroot.com/free-thought-i…
1/
 NEWSFEED --- May 7th, 2018 -- Monday

How much does @kanyewest scare the
@DNC and @Democrats

Part 1/2 - "Free Thought Is for White People" - @TheRoot

Article LITERALLY argues Black People are incapable of Free Speech.
Totally not kidding.
👇
theroot.com/free-thought-i…
2/
 NEWSFEED --- May 7th, 2018 -- Monday

How much does @kanyewest scare the
@DNC and @Democrats

Part 2/2 - "I’m Not Black, I’m Kanye" - @TheAtlantic

Article LITERALLY argues Black People are incapable of Freedom.
I've read it.
It's Breathtaking.
👇
theatlantic.com/entertainment/…
Read 97 tweets
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1/
 Newsfeed ---- 5-6-2018 ---- Sunday

"Far-left CNN’s highest rated show, Anderson Cooper 360, came in a humiliating 24th for April, behind every single program on Fox News that airs after 6 a.m."
👇
breitbart.com/big-journalism…
1/
 Newsfeed ---- 5-6-2018 ---- Sunday

"Far-left CNN’s highest rated show, Anderson Cooper 360, came in a humiliating 24th for April, behind every single program on Fox News that airs after 6 a.m."
👇
breitbart.com/big-journalism…
2/
 "As much energy the Democrats put into impeaching trump....now that Mueller's Gambit is almost over,..don't be surprised to see all that energy re-directed at #TeamFBIFusion. You see, somebody did a very serious crimes here, just not who you think."
👇
realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/…
Read 74 tweets

Trending hashtags

#vote #StopTheSteal #NC02 #VOTE #TruthMatters #hurricane #Disenfranchisement #VotingMatters #CountryOverParty #FlatEarthers #FlipItBlue #Peaceful #MarchForOurLives #FLIP24 #NoRA #TakeItBack #WVSen #YourVoteYourVoice #science #racial #Vote #DeepState #NC11 #TeamFBIFusion #Plus1

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