This is a short extract from a random obituary. But if you engage your inner eye 👁 and read it deeply, you will understand what the 2019 elections is *really* about... 
Not long ago, this was totally normal in Nigeria - Govt involved in any and every type of business including a catering company providing food for airlines. But in 1999, something started to change - Obj, who started Govt expansion in 70s had changed his mind
The process of removing Govt from vast areas of the economy began. Think of the GSM revolution that has touched the lives of practically every Nigerian. How much did it cost the govt? Zero. Effectively, the govt collected ~ $1bn in licence fees to *stand aside* from telecoms
How much did pension reforms cost govt? Again, zero. The govt simply provided regulation and stood aside. Result - from zero to N8trn+ in assets in 14 years, not including all the money that has been paid out already
Nigeria’s story is quite similar to India’s. In 1991, Manmohan Singh, as finance minister, delivered a transformational budget that ended the Licence Raj (short vid ) and article (quora.com/What-was-in-th…)
Dr. Singh’s budget cut tariffs and opened up various sectors that had been held in the grip of government. It worked. But just like Nigeria, something happened next - massive corruption
Dr Singh became prime minister in 2004 and lasted till 2014 when his Congress party lost to BJP. Again, just like Nigeria, the election that brought Modi into power in 2014 was dominated by the theme of corruption
The same Congress party that launched reforms to liberalise the economy had lost its mojo - crony capitalism, telecoms licences handed out on a dodgy basis and so on
Before the liberalisation, people in India used to leave their landlines in their will for their children because they were so valuable. The same party that transformed and freed India from that had now been enmeshed in corruption. But that’s where the similarity with India ends
When Indians voted for BJP, they voted against corruption because Modi was perceived to be a clean guy. But they also voted for his economic record in Gujarat - real or imagined, he had a record of liberalising and attracting investing when he led that state
In 2015 Nigerians also voted against the corruption and venality of PDP and GEJ. But did people *really* vote for a transformation of the economy to REVERSE the ideas of the last 20yrs? With Buhari (and Abba Kyari), that’s what you’re getting
When I say this Govt hates the private sector, it is exactly that. They do not like what has happened in the last 20yrs and ‘corruption’ is a good cover for the expansion of Govt that has happened in the last 3+yrs
They want a return to a time when Govt was completely dominant in all parts of the economy. Buhari ‘ordered’ grains to be released (from empty reserves) to feed the people. Govt is doing fertiliser business. CBN has expanded to any and everything.
But beyond that, the real clue is in what they *do not* do. No reforms that might benefit the private sector. VP hails tech community in every speech - ask him to shake body and drop $5m for them. Crickets. A sector that was showing so much promise was handed to Bayo BullShittu
They say they are completing stuff left behind by PDP. Ask them about what the law says about electricity tariffs in NBET. Voicemail. Why? Because it is something that will benefit the private sector by creating a functional market - that’s the last leg of power reform left
Instead what have we heard? Murmurings about reversing the electricity privatisation. The current mess in the power sector has a solution. But they do not like it - again, they hate the private sector. They want Govt expansion and dominance
Even the foolish subsidy that previously had ‘private sector’, is now 100% NNPC. Nobody knows what is going on there anymore. NNPC is even ‘reviving’ refineries. All their achievements are about Govt expansion
They hound MTN while FIRS is using all sorts of extra-judiciary powers to intimidate the private sector in the name of collecting taxes. They hate the private sector. The vision is to turn as many Nigerians as possible into Govt clients and reverse the last 20yrs
For me APC is an intellectually fraudulent party.
Did people vote in 2015 against corruption? Absolutely 100%.
But did they vote to undo the 20yr trajectory of the economy? 🤔
Voting Buhari next year is a perfectly valid choice.
But this is what it’s about
/end
Did people vote in 2015 against corruption? Absolutely 100%.
But did they vote to undo the 20yr trajectory of the economy? 🤔
Voting Buhari next year is a perfectly valid choice.
But this is what it’s about
/end
