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Kabir Khanna @kabir_here
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
New House Estimate: 226 D, 209 R (+/- 14 seats)

D estimate has been slow but steadily ticking up since we launched Battleground Tracker over the summer (Jun 219, Aug 222, Sep 224)
We also examined two turnout scenarios in this iteration. If turnout is higher overall and among people under 30, non-whites, and college degree holders, relative to recent midterms, Democrats stand to gain an estimated 235 seats
If new midterm voters stay home and electorate profiles demographically like it has in recent midterms, we estimate that Republicans would just barely hang onto majority. Dems would gain 22 seats but fall one short of winning control
Full write-up, including more details on turnout scenarios, here: cbsnews.com/news/democrati…
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Updating report @SalvantoCBS and I did on party switching from Jan-July 2017: cbsnews.com/news/2017s-big…. Analyzing @CBSNews/@YouGov panel data between Feb/Mar '17 and May/Jun '18, substantive results looking quite similar: only 8% switched parties over this roughly 15-month period.
People who switched parties were equally likely to go leftward and rightward. The frequencies of each type of switch (GOP-to-Independent, etc.) are similar to what we found last year (second graphic). But remember, the base is small. (Note: Independents include leaners here.)
Is switching parties related to changing one's support for Trump? The Nation Tracker includes this item, which is similar to four-part presidential approval. I code first two categories as support and latter two as oppose. Trump had 42% support in the May Tracker by this measure.
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Tight Race in South Carolina, Heckling in Florida, New Poll in Texas: 7 Days to Go nyti.ms/2CNONO8
2/"Welcome to The Tip Sheet, a daily political analysis of the 2018 elections, based on interviews with Republican and Democratic officials, pollsters, strategists and voters. Republicans on defense in South Carolina. Want to know which party is playing defense a week before the
3/"election? Take a look at where the independent expenditure arm of the National Republican Congressional Committee is going on the air at the last moment in its bid to protect the G.O.P.’s 23-seat House majority: South Carolina’s First District. That would be the
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OK, fine...looks like I drew the short straw today, so here's why DDS is wrong. Again. As Always. *Puts on Historian Hat* THREAD INCOMING
1. Some background: the 3/5 Compromise is in Art. 1, sec. 2 of the Constitution, in the section on how representation would be apportioned among the states in the new House of Representatives, the seats in which wld be alloted by population.
2. The language reads as follows. Note the avoidance of the word "slave"--the Constitution scrupulously avoids that word throughout. Some people argue that means the Constitution didn't really protect slavery. Those people are wrong.
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taekook au

taehyung goes to welcome his new neighbor who recently moved in and realizes it's his ex boyfriend from high school who ended things harshly with him.

" What the fuck, Jeongguk? "
" You still look good, Taehyung. "
✧ quote & don't reply
— nsfw(ish) at some point
✧ please don't be silent readers !
— social and written au
✧ lets get it
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Some points to consider about the Colorado teacher rally:

1) Teachers were required to take a day of personal leave to participate. For many teachers at the end of a school year, that means that it is an unpaid day of leave.

#RedForEd #ImAColoradoTeacher
2) This was not an easy choice for us. I am nervous about students eating before a weekend. I do worry about breaking the routines of children in trauma. But I worry more about the repetitive inequities students face every day, esp. kids of color.
3) When you read about the increased funding for education from the Colorado government, you have to keep in mind the Colorado "budget stabilization factor." In short, 7.5 BILLION dollars has been withheld by the government from education spending in the past 10 years.
Read 15 tweets
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#New PA cong. map increases D chance of winning the House majority by 4%. They only need a 6.8% generic ballot margin now (down from 7.7) to be favored.

Diff. will be closer to 10% in Nov when uncertainty from polls is ⬇️. Redraw is a very big deal.

One major reason the new PA map is such a big gain for Democrats is that it solidifies, not just tips, PA districts in Philly burbs. Also creates one additional vulnerable R district. (Easily seen in this map made by @JMilesColeman)
My forecasting model will have new PA map in the near future. This is not just a simple switch; it’s a coding redesign, restructuring of input, & drawing new geographic files. Takes a while (for me, a student).

In the meantime, just add 3-4% to the model: bit.ly/2018_house
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#BLUEWAVE2018: IF THERE'S ONE THING YOU DO TODAY, READ & WATCH THIS!

308 days til the 2018 Midterm Elections. It's time to talk about HOW we take back the House & Senate.

THE STRATEGY MUST BE TWO-FOLD:

1. DEFEND BLUE SEATS. #KeepItBlue
2. FLIP RED SEATS. #FlipItBlue

[THREAD]
#SENATE: DEMs are at a "disadvantage" and ON THE DEFENSE.

DEMOCRATS and Independents must DEFEND 25 SEATS.

REPUBLICANS must only DEFEND 9 SEATS.

For a Majority, DEMS MUST KEEP ALL SEATS...and #FLIP2 BLUE.
#SENATE: TRUMP WON 10 STATES w/ SEATS DEMs MUST DEFEND.

Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

HILLARY WON 1 STATE GOP MUST DEFEND...Nevada.

See competitive races below. Made BEFORE Franken's open seat.
Read 8 tweets

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