My final thread today (before boarding my flight): What does this all mean and what happens now? Again, caveat, yada yada yada, these are my impressions, I'm not stating them as facts. But:
I've warned against being too cynical because, as I had said, too much cynicism prepares you to accept the worst outcomes and lowers your expectations. But also, there's such a thing as "stupid cynicism" = almost making excuses for yourself to not push hard & cease opportunities.
Now, yes, people are understandable anxious. I am too. I want you to stay worried, stay concerned, stay angry, and keep pushing for the truth, and never accept to be taken for a ride or for your intelligence to be insulted. Demand answers, keep pushing.
And most importantly, keep supporting the work of journalists, analysts, activists, and others who are pushing for the truth and for the end of MBS's impunity (wink wink pinned tweet). Keep pushing.
Also keep pressurizing companies and individuals to boycott Saudi regime events, especially those set up by MBS himself. This is what we activists launched the #StopFII campaign for. Keep spreading it, keep pushing.
Having said all that: I do not think we're at a point where deals can be made, or cover-ups done. There is no version of events that exculpates MBS without insulting our collective intelligence and causing a massive uproar.
The ultimate outcome we want is the removal of MBS as the crown prince of Saudi Arabia and the subsequent roll-back of all of his repressive policies, including freeing all prisoners.
The reform agenda should continue and should include political reforms. Freedom of speech should be at the top of these reforms. As I argued back in June, Saudi reforms are more important than MBS, and MBS has become the biggest impediment to them. washingtonpost.com/news/democracy…
Note Friednman's latest article: It was phrased in the most comically orientalist way but essentially I agree with this wider point: The reforms are more important than MBS. Only, they should be *real* reforms, meaning releasing prisoners, political rights, free speech.
There seems to be a convergence of opinions that MBS must go; several leading American voices have said it, and they aren't alone. Some elements within the Saudi regime also agree. Also, read this (hit translate if you don't speak French): lefigaro.fr/international/…
This outcome - removal of MBS as crown prince - would be huge, but not outside the realm of political possibility at this point. I imagine some members of the US administration such as Kushner would be rooting for MBS, but many in America/West want him gone now.
Question is, what will MBS do? He's also the minister of defense, so an actual coup wouldn't be out of the works. It's going to be a very tense and volatile few days (or weeks?) for the Saudi regime and the world.
MBS is betting on the world order. If MBS survives and is rehabilitated, the world order would have shifted and dictators would know anything is possible. If MBS survives but loses key Western support, Saudi Arabia is heading towards pariah status.
If MBS doesn't survive though - if this is the end of his political career - then something big and important would have been achieved.
Btw, interesting little tidbit, someone told me that MBS's current favorite book is this:
amazon.com/Wisdom-Psychop…
amazon.com/Wisdom-Psychop…
Anyway. Like I said - keep the pressure up. Support those working on this.
