Guess we'll know for certain in a couple of weeks, but it feels like more races shifted Republican than Democrat after Kavanaugh. Only a few really dramatic ones, but overall it seems like a slow, steady, glacial shift to the GOP combined with normal homestretch poll tightening.
A slow, steady, glacial shift to Republicans was always the nightmare scenario for Democrats. Big splashy fireworks displays of partisan emotion tend to fizzle out on Election Day. Passion gooses polls but determination wins elections.
Of course, any punditocracy effort to create big national themes around elections will tend to underestimate the normal factors that never really go away, such as the enormous advantage of incumbency, or state and local issues that have little to do with sweeping narratives.
Pundits, especially those living in or focused on the Beltway, don't always grasp what really matters to ordinary voters, or how they can sincerely tell pollsters one thing in September but vote a different way in November.
One of the major, but not terribly dramatic or exciting, factors in recent midterm elections has been the sense of ennui among the party that won the last presidential race. They usually feel at least a bit dissatisfied with performance vs. promises, while opposition is fired up.
But then the background hum of this midterm election has been the country doing remarkably well, and in some key areas amazingly well, despite nonstop theatrics from the White House. It's like a circus up front and a Wal-Mart in back.
Normally you might think a general sense of "things are going pretty well" isn't enough to motivate voters, while the fiery passion of the opposition will. Contentment is comfortable, while resentment is rocket fuel.
But if this time is different, and there are reasons to think it is, the difference will be that Democrats shook up the contented with their Kavanaugh hit. They did the worst thing possible and made contended-to-mildly-perturbed voters feel like they're under attack.
The way Kavanaugh played out did more than just energize GOP voters - that might have fizzled before Election Day. It destroyed their COMPLACENCY, and subsequent events like the "caravan" are keeping complacency levels low.
Meanwhile, the failure of the Kavanaugh gambit demoralized some Democrat voters, and the obvious hypocrisy of the Party dispirited some sincere MeToo activists. Kavanaugh Hate is the force that fizzled. Ford is forgotten, Avenatti is a joke, Liz Warren a clown.
You can read too much into indicators like early voting and registration, but voter enthusiasm seems to have at least equalized, and it's gone far beyond that in a few key areas. The "teach Trump a lesson by letting Dems win" chorus in the GOP is dead as a Halloween ghost.
The Kavanaugh saga ultimately showed GOP voters they have to stay active to defend themselves and core American principles like presumption of innocence. Amazingly, the GOP came together and got something done. They promise the band will stay together and crank out more hits.
What do the Dems have? Sour grapes over a failed hit job. Zero national leadership. Weird fringe characters groomed by DNC Media as rising stars. Dinosaurs clinging to power. Party leaders so foolish they put millions in cash and media oxygen behind an empty suit in Texas.
Sure, they've got their hatred of Trump, but that's a tricky flame for Democrats to fan because it also inspires people who like him to rally behind him. And "The Resistance" has made itself very unappealing to swing voters, moderates, and political skeptics.
Bottom line: there's increasingly less reason to be excited if you're an anti-Trump Dem, increasingly more reason to be determined if you're a pro-Trump Repub. Those long disappointed by GOP leadership have reason to gamble a vote and see what they can do after Kavanaugh.
And if you're totally on the fence, consider that Trump and his party actually get stuff done, while Dems are actively promising to do nothing except paralyze government with political theater, plump their 2020 candidates, and pine for trillion-dollar socialist pipe dreams. /end
