Profile picture
, 19 tweets, 7 min read Read on Twitter
Economic consequences of Brexit: some thoughts... #efta #brexit
1/ those who oppose brexit point to the economic risks of a Hard Brexit. We share those concerns and will do everything we can to avoid a Hard Brexit. However, some people say that *any* type of Brexit will be economically damaging.
2/ not surprising with articles such as these in the media that explicitly say that:…
3/ And this: UK will be worse off in every possible scenario after Brexit, concludes leaked Government analysis…
4/ These articles originated with a government report. Two questions arise - how damaging does the government report say a 'soft' brexit (the type we advocate) will be, and why do they think this?
5/ The report titled “EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing” can be found here, lets examine it.…
6/ The report clearly shows that a 'soft' (EEA-type) brexit is by far the least damaging to the economy. Look at the comparison between various models.
7/ Indeed the report concedes that there is a potential increase to GDP under a "EEA" brexit scenario:
8/ The report concedes that there is little risk to the UK financial services sector under an EEA type Brexit
9/ And the report concedes that there is little risk in terms of tariffs under an eea-type Brexit
10/ So if financial services trade isn't at risk under an eea-type brexit, and there is little risk of tariffs, where does the claim that the efta/eea model would be economically harmful come from?
11/ on page 11 of the report is the nub of the matter: "the biggest costs of this arrangement [EEA-type] relate to customs processes" this is likely because none of the non-eu eea countries (Iceland🇮🇸, Liechtenstein🇱🇮, Norway🇳🇴) are in a Customs union with the EU.
12/ but beneath, the report concedes that potential for non-eu trade deals could mitigate this.
13/ As for the customs-related issues we have written a report about this, and how we believe they can be mitigated.…
14/ The EEA Agreement itself urges members to work together to resolve customs-related problems
15/ We know both the EU and UK are upgrading their Customs procedures and systems:
16/ We believe the recently ratified WTO Trade Facilitation agreement should further minimize difficulties trading with the EU (even outside a customs union).
17/ But to summarize, to really analyse the potential economic 'damage' (or benefit) of an eea type brexit we can express the problem this way:
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to EFTA 4 UK
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!