1/ those who oppose brexit point to the economic risks of a Hard Brexit. We share those concerns and will do everything we can to avoid a Hard Brexit. However, some people say that *any* type of Brexit will be economically damaging.
2/ not surprising with articles such as these in the media that explicitly say that: buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
3/ And this: UK will be worse off in every possible scenario after Brexit, concludes leaked Government analysis independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
4/ These articles originated with a government report. Two questions arise - how damaging does the government report say a 'soft' brexit (the type we advocate) will be, and why do they think this?
5/ The report titled “EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing” can be found here, lets examine it. parliament.uk/documents/comm…
6/ The report clearly shows that a 'soft' (EEA-type) brexit is by far the least damaging to the economy. Look at the comparison between various models. 
7/ Indeed the report concedes that there is a potential increase to GDP under a "EEA" brexit scenario:
8/ The report concedes that there is little risk to the UK financial services sector under an EEA type Brexit
9/ And the report concedes that there is little risk in terms of tariffs under an eea-type Brexit
10/ So if financial services trade isn't at risk under an eea-type brexit, and there is little risk of tariffs, where does the claim that the efta/eea model would be economically harmful come from?
11/ on page 11 of the report is the nub of the matter: "the biggest costs of this arrangement [EEA-type] relate to customs processes" this is likely because none of the non-eu eea countries (Iceland🇮🇸, Liechtenstein🇱🇮, Norway🇳🇴) are in a Customs union with the EU.
12/ but beneath, the report concedes that potential for non-eu trade deals could mitigate this.
13/ As for the customs-related issues we have written a report about this, and how we believe they can be mitigated. efta4uk.eu/new-report-cus…
14/ The EEA Agreement itself urges members to work together to resolve customs-related problems
15/ We know both the EU and UK are upgrading their Customs procedures and systems:
16/ We believe the recently ratified WTO Trade Facilitation agreement should further minimize difficulties trading with the EU (even outside a customs union).
17/ But to summarize, to really analyse the potential economic 'damage' (or benefit) of an eea type brexit we can express the problem this way:
