I am doing a thread on the possible implications on @elrufai choice of Dr. Hadiza Balarabe as running mate for the 2019 general elections. 
tagging my good friend @moohh_ who is intrigue by El Rufai’s boldness & willingness to change the status quo, my Oga @AhmedRufaiI who is an advocate of peace, @jishaq1 based on his request and @sir_deeda who have spent a great part of his life in the crocodile city & @Slynabena
Unsurprisingly, the choice of Dr. Hadiza Balarabe as running mate to El-Rufai comes with a varied of reaction. Kaduna has had a long history of ethnic and religious crisis. 1987, 1992, 2000 and 2011 were identified as the thresholds for massive crisis in the state by the Kaduna
peace committee report chaired by Gen. (rtd) Martin Luther Agwai CFR. Since the 2000 Sharia crisis, there was relative peace before crisis broke out after the 2011 general elections, and since then the crisis has taken different shapes of kidnaping, farmers/herders’ crisis
and targeted attacks on communities. The river Kaduna appears to be the significant landmark that divides the state into a Christian dominated south and a Muslim dominated north. Sadly, this division has was further stretched after the 2011 and 2015 general elections.
But as earlier mentioned, the division did not start in 2011. With the return to democracy in 1999, there was some sort of practice that shaped candidate’s choice of running mate.
Candidates from one location or religion will always choose running mates from the other location or religion. Not only for election and seeking of votes but also inclusion.
This recognized ethnic and religious diversity of the state was a means of proving to one side of the divide 'that we are together.'
With the decision of the current deputy governor to run for senate to represent the southern part of Kaduna, an expected decision would have been a like for like. But El Rufai seems to be a reform minded man that dares change the status quo.
The narrative that ‘the Christian dominated south does not support the governor’ may not necessarily be correct. It will be helpful to note two reasons I strongly believe supported the emergence of El Rufai as the governor of the state;
one was the Buhari effect that was felt in most states in the north; the other is that the then incumbent (Ramalan Yero) never gave electorates a good reason to vote for him. El Rufai had southern Kaduna support even before coming into office,
significant LGAs where El Rufai won in 2015 include Chikun, Kaduna South, Kagarko, Kajuru and Sanga.
Dr. Hadiza comes with a track record of experience and competence some of which is demonstrated in the upgrade of the Primary Health Centers across the states. She becomes the first female to be nominated for the position since the return of democracy.
This shows lot of improvements on gender and social inclusion. On the bright side, the choice of Dr. Hadiza will further support the reform mindset of including youths and women in the El Rufai’s government.
Based on her LGA, it will mean El Rufai has continued with the practice of choosing a running mate from the other part of river Kaduna.
On a not so bright side, more important than location, religion plays a more pivotal role in determining ones geography in the state. Though Dr. Hadiza hails from Sanga LGA in Southern Kaduna, the religious divide does not help.
Before now, there existed some perceptions on the ‘governor’s marginalization of Christians in the state’. This perception has been given some enforcement by certain decisions of the state government notable among which are:
the closure of all higher institutions in southern Kaduna for over 9 months even after security was seen to have improved; The recent decision or request to change nomenclature of traditional rulers in southern Kaduna from chiefdoms to emirates;
a statement attributed to the governor saying the population of Kaduna is 70% Muslim and 30% Christian which was widely condemned by CAN stating how such utterance can further divide the state among religious lines.
The handling of the recent crisis in Kaduna, the kidnapped and subsequent murder of the Agom Adara. While a lot of persons outside of Kaduna appreciate the responsiveness of the governor, the Southern residents did not feel that governor did enough to rescue the Agom.
I know that there are pessimists who will always find faults in actions, the address by the governor threatening to demolish a part of the state only added salt to injury.
If you understand the divide in Kaduna, you will know why Muslims are afraid of Gonin Gora, Sabo and Television and you know why Christians are afraid of Mararaban Jos, Tudun Wada and Rigasa.
A threat to demolish other hot spot locations along with Gonin Gora would have been perceived as more balanced.
While I personally feel Dr. Hadiza is competent and ‘equal to the task’, there is a huge part on inclusiveness that will be lost with her as El Rufai running mate. While the decision is daring, it doesn't help the fragile relationship currently in the state.
An important role inclusiveness plays after getting thumb print on the ballot is that reassurance that a people's concerns are heard or there is someone there to understand or listen.
If El Rufai is reelected, it will be the first time in the history of Kaduna state that we will have same religion as both governor and deputy. This is something enjoyed in the west because culture and geography outweigh religion.
It is important to state here that I have spent the greater part of my life in Kaduna and have experienced crisis and lost friends and loved ones. I wish we could return to that era where everyone was free to leave anywhere and interact with anyone in the state.
Conscious efforts may need to be put in place to rewrite the marginalization narrative among the Christian southerners and entire Kaduna. Leaders need to be voted based on character and competence and not based solely on religion.
END
