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Rob Ford @robfordmancs
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
One thing I've noticed re: the US midterms is how well a number of African American Democratic caandidates are doing, including in very white districts. For example, Illinois 14: nytimes.com/interactive/20…
I wonder if there is an anti-prejudice norm effect here. My colleagues @ScottBlinder , Elisabeth Ivarsflaten and I have found that many white voters are strongly motivated to demonstrate a commitment to oppose prejudice. Backing a black candidate is a good way to do that
@ScottBlinder Of course, its not the only factor in play, but I do wonder if the very divisive context of the Trump presidency might make this motivation more powerful, as a way to push back or take a stand against a perceived rise in intolerance and division
@ScottBlinder It will be interesting to dig through the results after next Tuesday and see if there was particularly high college educated and/or young white voter turnout in places where a black Democrat was on the ballot. Might point to an anti-racism norm effect.
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Insightful stuff from Stephen as usual. People’s Vote campaign still haven’t figured out good message to win the referendum they campaign for. One problem imo is the one @hugorifkind identified today - Remainers have gone Conan and are more interested in venting than persuading
Imagine a horde of #fbpe types descending on the nations doorsteps to explain to joe public that he is a racist moron duped by Russians into blaming all his problems on the immigrants who keep this country running, who has now been given a golden opportunity to reverse his error.
Sound persuasive? No? Well that’s the jist of the message I hear from the most committed and active pro-Remain types nearly all the time. It doesn’t seem to trouble them that “my opponents are stupid” isn’t great for a campaign which requires winning over at least some of them.
Read 3 tweets
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OK, time for my 2019 predictions thread....
1. Brexit. I have very low confidence in this, given the huge uncertainty and wide range of options but here goes:
We will go right to the edge of the A50 deadline, maybe even a little past it, but in the end May's deal will get voted through after an absolutely awful March
May's deal has two advantages - it starts with a large pool of votes, and it requires less steps to achieve than any of the other options.
With both Lab and Cons unwilling to co-ordinate on an alternative, and unwilling to work with the Other Side despite internal divides...
Read 54 tweets
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Will do a thread of 2019 predictions tomorrow. First, a thread on things I got wrong in 2018. 1/?
Starting with the question which consumed us in Britain in 2018: Brexit. A year ago, my expectation was that we would have secured and voted through a deal by this point in time. The deal would pass at the second or third time of asking, with Labour votes to overcome ERG rebels.
3/? Not where we are of course. What did I get wrong? Several things, I think. I underestimated the size and inflexibility of the "no deal is better than a bad deal" faction in the Parl Cons. And underestimted the willingness of govt to take us right to the edge of No Deal
Read 23 tweets

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🌊🗳️#Democratic Americans—the ones who are standing up for Democracy—have gone to "extraordinary lengths" to promote candidates and get out the vote. They've:

▶️Quit jobs
▶️Delayed school
▶️Moved across country
▶️Worked without pay

To stand up for Democracy and their country.
🙌👊Thank you to all of them.

@nytimes: Their zeal speaks to the historic political moment, in which a dizzying array of House races across the country have begun to feel as consequential as a presidential election.

nytimes.com/2018/11/05/us/…
💥💥Swing Left @swingleft reported that they knocked on more than one million doors!!!
Read 16 tweets
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🍑Lucy McBath @LucyWins2018: Mother, Wife, Businesswoman, Activist for Social Justice.

🗣️You might recognize her from the 2016 #Democratic Convention: she represented Mothers of the Movement, a group of women whose African American children have been killed by gun violence.
🍑She intended to run for the #Georgia Legislature, but after the Parkland #Florida shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, she decided her aspirations weren’t high enough. #NeverAgainMSD #BeAVoter
🍑She’s running for Congress in George’s 6th District and could use your help because she’s in a tight race. She’s running against the SAME NRA-backed, A-rated Republican that Jon Ossoff ran against in a runoff election in June 2017. Ossoff should have won back then.
Read 31 tweets
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One thing I've noticed in nearly 4 years of tracking Twitter bots is how in every country where they are active, people not only recognize what they are but they also give them nicknames.
For example in Mexico they're called "peñabots." I don't think anyone believes Enrique Peña Nieto is running a propaganda botnet out of the basement of the Casa Blanca but this is the umbrella term that's been adopted to generally call out any kind of fakery on MX social media.
In Mexico they sometimes name them after other politicians too. Like when (former) senator Omar Fayad tried to pass a terrible internet bill in 2015, fake accounts filled his mentions with sycophantic praise of the bill. Those accounts were called "FayadBots"
Read 6 tweets
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🤓 one thing i've learnt about energy is that you've _got_ to go to the data.

"common knowledge", aka "anecdata", is so very often wrong.

an example: i was recently told that @originenergy's #mortlake gas power station was generating "all the time", as "base load".

it's not!
the chart above shows the last 12 months of output. (HT @dylanjmcconnell)

#mortlake has been running with a capacity factor of 28.9% and it's been 2 months since it even hit 50% power.
most wind farms and some solar farms have a higher capacity factor than #mortlake!

$ORG would need to work it about 3 times harder before you'd call it a 'base load' generator.
Read 5 tweets
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African Americans we need to have a serious talk about slavery. Some of y'all don't understand why living history is important.
African American interpreters are not doing cosplay of slavery. We are taking control of the narrative. Making our Ancestors 3 dimensional.
We don't just interpret slavery. Sometimes we educate people about WWI, WWII, the Civil War, etc.
Read 25 tweets

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