Four stages of modern elections:
1. Early narrative w/polls showing huge Dem lead
2. Polls "tighten" (i.e. switch to likely voters)
3. Tight races all become margin-of-error tossups, pollsters yammer about arcane math theories
4. Election + "how did polls get this so wrong?"
1. Early narrative w/polls showing huge Dem lead
2. Polls "tighten" (i.e. switch to likely voters)
3. Tight races all become margin-of-error tossups, pollsters yammer about arcane math theories
4. Election + "how did polls get this so wrong?"
Some thoughts about why:
1. Polls are manipulated, obviously, especially the early "loose" ones. Early polls are heavily shaped by media narratives.
2. The "shy Tory" effect - in a heavy Left media environment, Right voters less likely to respond or answer honestly
1. Polls are manipulated, obviously, especially the early "loose" ones. Early polls are heavily shaped by media narratives.
2. The "shy Tory" effect - in a heavy Left media environment, Right voters less likely to respond or answer honestly
3. Prevalence of cell phones and people getting deeply frustrated with spam and scam calls makes it harder to conduct polls
4. Quick and easy online activism blows off steam, fewer people make the effort to vote. This hurts the Left more because it heavily relies on young voters
4. Quick and easy online activism blows off steam, fewer people make the effort to vote. This hurts the Left more because it heavily relies on young voters
5. Voter enthusiasm is key; current media environment makes it very hard for them to detect or honestly measure enthusiasm from the Right
6. Voters remain more focused on pocketbook issues than they admit to pollsters; they want to sound idealistic, not materialistic
6. Voters remain more focused on pocketbook issues than they admit to pollsters; they want to sound idealistic, not materialistic
7. GOP voters in tossup areas seem more inclined to vote on Election Day instead of early or absentee ballots, so they respond better to late-stage turnout entreaties
8. GOP voters distrust the media so deeply they have become difficult to manipulate, harder to suppress. /end
8. GOP voters distrust the media so deeply they have become difficult to manipulate, harder to suppress. /end
P.S. All of that said, big things happening in the background - retirements, midterm doldrums for party in White House, etc - have always been more important than day-to-day horse-race theatrics. It takes a lot of enthusiasm to overcome those forces. We'll soon see if it's there.
