1. Early narrative w/polls showing huge Dem lead
2. Polls "tighten" (i.e. switch to likely voters)
3. Tight races all become margin-of-error tossups, pollsters yammer about arcane math theories
4. Election + "how did polls get this so wrong?"
1. Polls are manipulated, obviously, especially the early "loose" ones. Early polls are heavily shaped by media narratives.
2. The "shy Tory" effect - in a heavy Left media environment, Right voters less likely to respond or answer honestly
4. Quick and easy online activism blows off steam, fewer people make the effort to vote. This hurts the Left more because it heavily relies on young voters
6. Voters remain more focused on pocketbook issues than they admit to pollsters; they want to sound idealistic, not materialistic
8. GOP voters distrust the media so deeply they have become difficult to manipulate, harder to suppress. /end