Profile picture
Daniel Dale @ddale8
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Here's a good guide to when we might have various results tonight: fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-…
Here's a rough guide to how tight the various competitive races are expected to be, so you know how big a deal a particular outcome is: cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-…
Here's a guide to lots of important races and questions that have gotten less attention than the House and Senate - voting rights for ex-felons in Florida, Medicaid expansion in Idaho, Nebraska and Utah, governor races, sheriff races, etc.:
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Daniel Dale
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ddale8 see all

Profile picture
In my experience, immediately fact-checking Trump's immigration lies is harder than immediately fact-checking most other Trump lies -- they're often written into his speeches by people more sophisticated at deception than he is.
Most of Trump's lying is just Trump being a liar -- it's him ad-libbing out of speeches that are more or less factual. The immigration lying is an administration-wide strategy.
He repeats a lot of them, so outlets should be prepared to respond to those right away. But there's really no way to counteract a barrage of live-to-air Trump immigration lies with fact-checking, even if live-TV-fact-checking were a common thing - you can't do it fast enough.
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Trump this morning: "Iran hates ISIS more than we do, if that's possible. Russia hates ISIS more than we do. Turkey hates ISIS maybe not as much as we do. But these are countries that hate ISIS."
On the shutdown, Trump said, "I may declare a national emergency dependent on what's gonna happen over the next few days."
Trump repeated his now-familiar false claim about the U.S. military presence in Syria: "When they went to Syria five years ago, they were supposed to be there three to four months. And they never came out." Experts tell me there was never any timetable on the mission.
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Trump is doing a lengthy Trump monologue about immigration. Sample: "Children are the biggest beneficiaries of what we want to do." "Three or four women with tape on their mouths, and they're tied up..." "Brand new walls. Beautiful walls. Steel walls."
Trump admits that a steel wall would be more expensive than a non-steel wall, but he says he probably wants to do a steel wall "because I really feel the other side feels better about it." (The other side does not feel substantially better about it.)
There is, again, no basis for Trump's repeated claim that San Diego begged him to build a wall there. Even San Diego's Republican mayor opposes the wall.
Read 26 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Here's my biggest takeaway from the midterms: fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump…
The Republican base turned out. But the Democratic base turned out too. And the Democratic base is *bigger*. And independents broke strongly against Republicans. The GOP base vote *may* be enough to win the Senate, but not the House or the presidency.
Trump will probably do better among independents in 2020 than the GOP did this year (at least if the economy stays good). The Democratic base is still bigger than the Republican one though and is likely to be very motivated. And he won't catch all the breaks he did in 2016.
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
I'll put this in article form, but Tuesday's results seem to prove three important things... Two are very bad for Trump for 2020. One is better, but doesn't come close to eliminating the other two... Let's go through them...
1. There had been a ton of talk about how Trump won in 2016 despite being so unpopular. Therefore, it didn't matter that he was unpopular now. People said approval/favorable wasn't a good metric for capturing Trump. (2/???)
I had argue that this argument missed one very important fact: Hillary Clinton was very unpopular in 2016. When she wasn't part of the equation, Trump's unpopularity would shine through. fivethirtyeight.com/features/bad-n…
Read 13 tweets
Profile picture
Here’s a subject upon which I have been thinking and discussing with conservatives: how abortion is a weirdly complex intra-party issue for the GOP, way more than you might think.

@538politics wrote a fascinating piece on the subject: fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-a…
@538politics Now, these numbers aren’t big. But they aren’t small, and might be why @WSJ has written “reassuring” op-eds on why Kavanaugh doesn’t put Roe in jeopardy, and why a few conservative sites have been discussing this issue in a different way than you might expect.
@538politics @WSJ Via @LoConservative
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
The problem with almost every discussion about online privacy is that it starts from a place of assuming that the problem is with the choices of individual Americans ... and not with the system we all HAVE to interact with, daily.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-c…
Data privacy experts told me we need to think about it more like environmental protection. It's great if you recycle, personally. But that doesn't stop climate change. Privacy is a systems problem, not a problem of personal virtue signaling.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-c…
“I don’t even know if we have had our ‘Silent Spring’ yet. Maybe Cambridge Analytica will be our ‘Silent Spring.’” -- @ACLU's Daniel Kahn Gillmor on the need for new ways of thinking about privacy law and policy

fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-c…
Read 8 tweets
Profile picture
We recently learned that among the first American candidates for national office to make use of Cambridge Analytica's services was Art Robinson, running for US Representative in Oregon's 4th district. But who is Art Robinson? Let's dig into this. 1/
oregonlive.com/today/index.ss…
Art Robinson has a PhD in biochemistry from the University of California. In 1980 he moved to Oregon and founded the nonprofit Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine in Cave Junction. Don't be fooled, though. This is not a prestigious organization. 2/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_B.…
Cave Junction is a small, rural town in southern Oregon with fewer than 2000 residents. It is not a center of biochemical and health research. However, Robinson's OISM claims to research a wide variety of topics, including aging, elementary science education & the environment. 3/
Read 64 tweets
Profile picture
(THREAD) It's time to tell the biggest untold story of the 2016 election: how a cadre of pro-Trump FBI agents and intel officers—some active, some retired—conspired to swing the election to Trump. The story involves Flynn, Prince, Giuliani, and others. Hope you'll read and share.
1/ True Pundit is a pro-Trump fake news site that began publishing on June 9, 2016—the day that Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner, and Paul Manafort met with Kremlin agents in Trump Tower to discuss the Kremlin's provision to the Trump campaign of incriminating material on Clinton.
2/ True Pundit would quickly reveal itself as having the same agenda Trump Jr. had when he met with Kremlin agents on the day True Pundit launched: its mission would be to destroy Clinton's candidacy by uncovering incriminating material about her—particularly via her emails.
Read 114 tweets

Trending hashtags

#chemistry #Mythology #Matthew #clergyman #scientist #congregations #LifeChoices #universal #exams #UnitedNations #microbes #women #WomenInspire #WorldWarII #Malachi #GirlsInSTEM #preach #murdered #NutShellReport #Indian #liberal #WaitForIt #Jeremiah #s #TrumpRussiaConspiracy

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!