Here's my biggest takeaway from the midterms: fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump…
The Republican base turned out. But the Democratic base turned out too. And the Democratic base is *bigger*. And independents broke strongly against Republicans. The GOP base vote *may* be enough to win the Senate, but not the House or the presidency.
Trump will probably do better among independents in 2020 than the GOP did this year (at least if the economy stays good). The Democratic base is still bigger than the Republican one though and is likely to be very motivated. And he won't catch all the breaks he did in 2016.
There's a rich history of presidents (Obama, Clinton, Reagan) recovering after bad midterms. But those presidents, to varying degrees, all made adjustments. They also benefited from improving economies whereas we may be near a peak now. Trump needs a course correction.
