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Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Times brexit live
- 48 hours to find a deal in Brussels
- Two main sticking points, fishing and backstop exit mechanism
- Mixed reports on optimism
- Cabinet split over whether they’ll accept it
- As of yesterday afternoon, cabinet agenda not set

thetimes.co.uk/article/3e9c51…
Whitehall source points out Truss exclusion part of super secret budget prep, and other ministers were excluded too, and decision took place in Sept before Pizza club of brexiteers even convened

But brexit stance, positioning and media profile contributed to decision
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Times exc

What next on brexit?

In today’s Times I do a roundup of what people across Westminster - and beyond - are saying at the start of the new term.

A thread below on my conclusions, including details of “Operation Figleaf”

thetimes.co.uk/article/62a2f4…
1. The meaningful vote is set to be either on Tue Jan 15 or Wed Jan 16.

A decision hasn’t been made yet

It partly depends on whether the Commons sits next Friday and Tories have a three line whip to attend the brexit debate - which is unusual
2. Theresa May wants to focus briefing on domestic issues - the NHS? - this weekend

I’m told one advanced plan is for May to appear on the @AndrewMarr9 on BBC 1 on Sunday to launch the 10 year NHS plan, spelling out how the ££ announced over the summer will be spent.
Read 14 tweets
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NEW

European leaders Varadkar and Merkel discuss how to help May to get through Withdrawal Agreement in a 40 minute call

"It was an opportunity to kind of brainstorm a bit as to what we could do to assist prime minister May" - Varadkar
Varadkar suggests that clarifications, not changes, on the table from the EU side

"We are happy to offer reassurance and guarantees to the United Kingdom but not reassurances and guarantees that contradict or change what was agreed back in November"
Varadkar suggests next 2 weeks key

“This is something we will have to see develop over the next week or two. Bear in mind the UK government has approved this agreement. The difficulty is UK government appears unable at this point in time to secure ratification from the Commons"
Read 3 tweets
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FCO announcement:

The UK government and its allies are holding responsible elements of the Chinese government for an extensive cyber campaign targeting commercial secrets around the world.
Along with its allies, the UK has announced that a group known as APT 10 acted on behalf of the Chinese Ministry of State Security to carry out a malicious cyber campaign targeting intellectual property and sensitive commercial data in Europe, Asia and the US.
"This campaign shows that elements of the Chinese government are not upholding the commitments China made directly to the UK in a 2015 bilateral agreement. It is also inconsistent with G20 commitments"
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Again, at such a key moment in UK and at such high political levels, evidence of deep misunderstanding of EU: The PM is under pressure in some quarters to delay #Brexit vote to allow her first to “improve” deal in Brussels BUT EU is determined not to budge at this stage
2) All EU leaders watching tomorrow’s vote. Of course they want to avoid a no deal #Brexit BUT they feel the deal - so painfully negotiated between EU and UK - is too fresh to re-open. Clarifications, yes but fundamental renegotiations, no.
3) The EU’s international reputation as a tough deal-maker is at stake here too. If Brussels now suddenly “gives in” to U.K. on EU red lines (eg backstop) then that would weaken the EU’s reputation in future trade negotiations with other non EU countries
Read 6 tweets
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So @DominicRaab and Brexiteers think a defeat for @theresa_may
on Dec 11 will allow the UK to renegotiate the Irish backstop, specifically the right to leave unilaterally.

Here's why, after chats with both sides, that ain't happening IMO. 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may First Raab thinks a PM that shows some "will and resolve" can get the EU to change its mind.

But his own experience must tell him different. Remember his own failed tilt at @simoncoveney demanding three-month exit clause? Fail. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may @simoncoveney But even allowing for disingenuousness, there are 3 reasons why the EU is not bluffing when it says it won't renegotiate the backstop to give the UK a unilateral walkout clause.

1. They actually want to avoid a hard border
2. Political solidarity
3. They don't buy UK bluff /3
Read 20 tweets
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1) Again and again I’m struck by the chasm in thinking between leading MP’s on #Brexit and the viewpoint of EU leaders - and remember, if you want a deal, it takes two to tango
2) There is ZERO appetite or intention in EU circles to renegotiate this withdrawal deal
3) The EU would love the U.K. to remain a member of the club but if we’re leaving - then this is the divorce deal
Read 14 tweets
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Senior sources say UK prime minister May has secured private #Brexit concessions from Brussels that will allow her to keep the whole of Britain in a customs union, avoiding a hard border in Northern Ireland thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/r…
EU concession 1: The EU will write an all-UK customs deal into the legally binding withdrawal agreement so an EU-designed “backstop” treating Northern Ireland differently from the UK mainland is not required
EU concession 2: There will be an “exit clause” to convince Eurosceptics the UK will not be under the EU's customs regime for ever
Read 8 tweets
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1) Get ready for a big #Brexit week this week - in Brussels and U.K.
2) European Commission decides today whether or not to delay 2 awaited publications scheduled for Wednesday appearance: paper on future EU-UK relationship and paper on stark EU intentions in case of no deal
3) These 2 papers could be used as carrot/sticks in negotiations but there’s a nervousness in EU circles to get tone right at this delicate coming-to-end-game state of #Brexit proceedings and not to be seen as bullying (remember Salzburg??)
Read 9 tweets
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#Brexit rentrée today - what are the objectives for @dominraab and @OllyRobbins?
There are two main objectives for UK side
The most important is to stop @michelbarnier and European Commission totally killing off the Chequers white paper
Read 6 tweets

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