on Dec 11 will allow the UK to renegotiate the Irish backstop, specifically the right to leave unilaterally.
Here's why, after chats with both sides, that ain't happening IMO. 1/thread
But his own experience must tell him different. Remember his own failed tilt at @simoncoveney demanding three-month exit clause? Fail. /2
1. They actually want to avoid a hard border
2. Political solidarity
3. They don't buy UK bluff /3
The backstop, it is true, speaks to a deep lack of trust on EU side of UK. But who, honestly, can blame them for that? /4
And look at the debate now, the demand for a unilateral exit clause? Clear Brexiteers would want to pull it. Why EU want insurance policy. It won't give that up lightly/5
The backstop has become talismanic for EU solidarity at a time when Brexit threatens it. /6
The clock runs down, and a PM with 'resolve' tells the EU it's a deal minus the backstop, or no deal at all.
And there is an apparent logic to this /10
Boom. Gotcha! /11
It is basically a deal hewn by political gravity - which she herself (2016 Conference speech, Lancaster House, Mansion House, Chequers deal, with its silly customs plan) was too slow to accept /18
My guess is there is not enough hot air - even in Westminster, which is saying something - to stop it from doing so. /ENDS
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