Thread by @AMKFootball

NEW THREAD:

The “Dirtiest” Teams in the Premier League + A Discussion on a New Scale for Fouls: An Interesting Discussion Highlighting the “Tactical Foul” Method of One Team in Particular

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It is common that after a game, various statistical sites calculate the game's general statistics such as possession, shots, corners and more.

From them, they calculate fouls. From here, it is often utilised as a direct comparison i.e. the team that fouled more is seen to be the dirtier team.

However, this premise is false.

There are some teams that keep possession of the ball more (e.g. Manchester City, Chelsea, Barcelona, Juventus, Bayern Munich, etc) and, thus, they are less likely to foul due to the fact that there is no need for it.

Thus, a better measurement for how “dirty” a team is or, in less controversial terms, how much a team fouls, it is better to utilise their time in a game wherein they do not have the ball and have this as a marker.

So:

Minutes without ball ÷ fouls per game = “foul rate”

So, here's the Premier League's foul rate list (top 10) which was correct for matchday 11 (i.e. the week before the Manchester Derby).

The number represents the amount of fouls a teams makes per minute out of possession (FPMWP).

0.327 – Arsenal
0.311 – Manchester City
0.311 – Manchester United
0.306 – Chelsea
0.302 – Tottenham
0.263 – Fulham
0.258 – Everton
0.257 – Wolves
0.250 – Liverpool
0.248 – Leicester City

So, that's the top 10 for the teams with the highest FPMWP.

However, if a calculation is done to look at Manchester City and Manchester United during the Manchester Derby, we see this:

0.381 – Manchester City
0.205 – Manchester United

So, Manchester City were nearly twice as likely to foul in the derby despite totalling the same amount of fouls.

This is after Gary Neville claimed Manchester City commit “tactical fouls” to which Pep Guardiola denied.

This is for this season. What about last season (2017-18)? Who were the biggest culprits for fouls? Who were the “dirtiest” team?

The following is the top 10 from last season:

0.357 – Manchester City
0.296 – Tottenham
0.295 – Arsenal
0.263 – Manchester City
0.257 – Liverpool
0.257 – Watford
0.250 – Southampton
0.247 – Everton
0.240 – Chelsea
0.227 – Crystal Palace

So, as we can clearly see, Manchester City had a significantly higher foul rate than any other team in the Premier League and this season, they are 2nd. In addition, against Manchester United, they scored 0.381 on the FPMWP scale which is incredibly high.

Moreover, against Arsenal, Manchester City's FPMWP was 0.370 compared to Arsenal's 0.211.

Against Liverpool, City's FPMWP was 0.227 compared to Liverpool's 0.218.

Against Tottenham, City's FPMWP was 0.301 compared to Tottenham's 0.278.

In every single ‘Big Game’ this season – even the Chelsea game in the Community Shield – Manchester City have produced a higher FPMWP than their opponents.

They were significantly higher than Manchester United and Arsenal whilst being more than Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool.

One of the reasons for this is because Guardiola knows his 2–3–5 on-the-ball formation can be easily countered by the best teams in the league.

As a result, he instructs them – as will be shown – to commit tactical fouls to prevent the opposition from counter attacking.

Despite this, Guardiola insists that he has never instructed his players to commit tactical fouls and he portrays a sense of calmness and humility.

Regardless of that, his team in the last 1½ seasons, have been the “dirtiest” team in the Premier League.

Whilst he denies it, here is Mikel Arteta instructing David Silva, Kevin De Bruyne and Ilkay Gündogan to make [tactical] fouls if there is a transition [for the opposition]. He repeats his command.

Guardiola may feign ignorance but he is very controlling of his tactics and…

…so there is no change that Arteta gave this command without Guardiola knowing it beforehand and without this command coming from Guardiola himself.

To summarise:

1) FPMWP is the best way – so far – to judge how much a team foul their opponents

2) Manchester City, as evidenced, have the highest rate of this in the Premier League for the last 1½ seasons

3) Manchester City have the highest foul rate in ‘Big Games’

End of Thread

Correction:

The team with 0.263 are Manchester UNITED. I made a mistake there.

CORRECTION:

This should say:

“…so there is no CHANCE…”