Thread by @DmitryOpines

1/ The ERGs response to the WA is unsurprisingly unserious, but it's worth spelling out in detail what their Canada ++++ proposal would mean in practice.

brexitcentral.com/erg-publish-ri…

2/ Canada ++++ suggests taking CETA, a free trade agreement between the EU and Canada years in the making, and replicating it to cover the EU-UK trading relationship with some additional provisions sprinkled on top.

Couple of issues here. Big ones.

3/ First, it misses the point of the WA which is to prevent the chaos of a No-Deal Brexit by agreeing with the EU to a transition period during which the UK leaves the EU but trading arrangements remain the same.

This is meant to buy time to negotiate something for the future.

4/ Second, the ERG paper implies that because CETA exists, a UK-EU FTA replicating its offerings would take no time at all.

That's simply not how that works. Most trade negotiations begin based on the text/approach of a previous agreement as the "model."

They still take years.

5/ So what are ERG suggesting in practice?

Step 1. UK crashes out of the EU at the end of March, with all the massive disruption that entails.

Step 2. Businesses adjust, many failing or spending tens of thousands.

Step 3. UK and EU begin negotiations on an FTA based on Canada.

6/ Step 4. An indeterminate amount of time passes. In deciding how much, remember how long and difficult negotiations over just the WA have been.

Step 5. The FTA is signed and implemented.

Step 6. Businesses adjust AGAIN, undoing all or part of the measures they took in Step 2.

7/ This proposal does not amount to a serious alternative to the negotiated deal.

It's jumping off the cliff edge and hoping you can fly because you've seen a bird do it.

/End

P.S Good analysis of the ERG paper by @DavidHenigUK if you want detail.