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Jonathan Lis @jonlis1
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Extraordinary Hammond interview on #r4today. First, admits we’ll be poorer under any scenario. Then gives just two mitigating benefits, both lies: third country trade deals, impossible with backstop, and control of our waters, which we’ll cede in trade deal. Couldn’t make it up.
Need to take a step back from this. Gov admits Brexit will make us poorer in all circumstances. Again, take yourself back to 23 June 2016. If campaign had admitted that, how many would’ve voted to leave? At every point they promised increased prosperity. This is a unique outrage.
For two years, ministers have repeatedly lied that Brexit will deliver prosperity. Even now PM champions the Brexit dividend. Now they casually admit that, no, it won’t happen, and people weren’t voting for it anyway. And then have the gall to call a people’s vote undemocratic?!
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Labour Party policy is as follows:

1/ Reject this deal
2/ Try to secure general election
3/ Try to win election
4/ Try to renegotiate Brexit in government
5/ If 2, 3 or 4 doesn’t happen, support a referendum

Renegotiation won’t work, but it is policy. So is a people’s vote.
We can argue about this, but let’s also bear in mind that the government is currently spending billions of pounds preparing for a scenario which will cut off our food and medicine supply.
And, before you say ‘we crash out on 29 March’, Corbyn has explicitly ruled out supporting no-deal under any circumstances and has repeatedly called on May to extend Article 50. He will no-confidence gov before we reach edge of the abyss.
Read 3 tweets
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I know this looks disappointing, but hold tight. Corbyn can hardly promise to ‘stop Brexit’ when he’s already outlined preference for a general election so he can renegotiate it. If there is a GE manifesto with no Plan B for a referendum if he can’t renegotiate, *then* get angry
Because the truth is that he won’t be able to renegotiate much. Backstop has to stay in all circumstances. Customs union must still be worked through in transition period and we’ll never get a veto over our tariffs or EU’s trade policy, but will still have to follow them.
And if he wants to end free movement - a huge error - then that means we leave the single market with massive disruption at Dover and a border in Irish Sea. So realistically best Corbyn can do is to have ‘Norway Plus’ added to political declaration as a negotiating aspiration.
Read 4 tweets
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Corbyn spot on here. May is running down the clock and wasting money on an outcome she knows won’t happen, just to make her deal look like lesser of two evils. She is now driving Project Fear. Even by standards of British politics this is unparalleled cynicism #PMQs
Wow, there really is nothing more cringe-making than watching May bleat out rigidly rehearsed stale jokes. Also, did nobody suggest ‘they’re behind you’ might be an unwise line when 117 of her own MPs just tried to get rid of her? #PMQs
Have to do a double-take when PM answers a question about foreign policy. Seems impossible to remember a time when UK gov took a sustained interest in world affairs and wasn’t exclusively concerned with implementing a navel-gazing orgy of economic ruin and national self-harm
Read 3 tweets

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A few initial thoughts on the government's updated impact assessments (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…).

A summary of the scenarios – above the 0, the benefits of Brexit, including new trade deals. Below the 0, the costs of Brexit, such as barriers to trade (i.e. friction):
2. The gov't has chosen to model Chequers, which the EU has already rejected. This is mostly interesting because it shows that even in the "basket full of cherries fantasy scenario", the UK still ends up worse off that inside the EU.
3. The gov't doesn't seem to have modelled the backstop, or the UK staying in a customs union, as a scenario, which is odd given that it's more likely than the already rejected chequers
Read 10 tweets
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Tonight at 2200 on @skynews i’ve been in the port of Larne, Northern Ireland with Daisy the cow, who could save the Brexit Deal or imperil the Union, depending on your view...#backstop #borderforcows
in the Northern Ireland port town of Larne, one of the places where Irish Sea checks would be required under EU Ireland Brexit backstop proposal, currently being negotiated in Brussels..
and one of the places where checks actually already happen on animal trade between Sco & NI
Barnier mentioned these existing “Irish Sea” checks as a precedent yesterday - but would have to be tenfold increase for backstop...DUP source said this was building “an entire edifice” on some foot & mouth checks for cows..MEP Diane Dodds said checks on lasagne as well as cows
Read 6 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
Important issue highlighted by @riotwomennn: are tariff exemptions determined by bribes?

Corker: "22,000 companies have asked for exemptions.There is no basis to deal with them. Are they going to grant these exclusions based on political contributions?"
Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 232 tweets
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1. A thread on #trade and aid.

One of the first tangible benefits of #Brexit I've seen is the emerging reform of @DFID_UK where it is becoming more of an arm of trade policy than a state owned humanitarian NGO. I would like that to go much further and rethink trade.
2. I do not think we should be wasting too much effort on free trade deals largely because they are of questionable value and encourage inefficient value chains. Any work on tariffs should really be reserved for multilateral activity.
3. Instead we need DfID as the spearhead of our trade policy. There is no reason why we cannot pursue humanitarian goals and enhance our trade while we are at it. For a start we can do a lot with medicines and pharmacy products.
Read 21 tweets
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#AskyourMP The Government referendum leaflet sent to every household makes no mention of the GFA nor how leaving the EU will impact it? Does this omission of key information undermine the referendum mandate?
#AskyourMP If para 49 of the phase 1 report from Dec 2017 requires alignment with SM and CU rules as a fallback, does it make sense to stay in the SM and CU and have representation on those rules?
#AskyourMP if there is no custom union deal with the EU how long will the supermarket have fresh produce on their shelves?
Read 61 tweets

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