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Sam Lowe @SamuelMarcLowe
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
New @CER_EU piece by me asking whether the UK could run an effective independent trade policy whilst in a customs union with the EU:

cer.eu/publications/a…
(This feels like it could be relevant right now.)
My conclusion:

The bigger impediment to the UK’s trade ambitions is not a customs union with the EU, but the Home Office.

cer.eu/publications/a…
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More from @SamuelMarcLowe see all

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I often find myself thinking about the claim that UK food prices will fall post-Brexit so long as the UK removes the existing EU tariffs on food imports (which can be quite high) either unilaterally or via new free trade agreements.

I'm sceptical, for a few reasons.
The first being that vast majority of our imported food comes from EU. Even if we unilaterally dropped tariffs on all imported food, we would still import a lot of food from the EU. EU food will be more expensive than now, if only because of new bureaucracy (ignoring tariffs).
Second, currency.

The IFS estimate that unilateral tariff removal could reduce household prices about 0.7–1.2%. This benefit has already been negated by a ~2% depreciation in sterling post-referendum.

ifs.org.uk/uploads/public…
Read 8 tweets
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Day 4 without a working boiler. I am starting to get cold.
Fair point.
Fixed! And I now have the number of a great gas engineer for any North Londoners in need. (Diagnosed and fixed it in 30 minutes compared to a 3 hour failed attempt by cowboys on NY eve).
Read 4 tweets
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Tariffs not biggest issue for British food exporters to EU, bigger issue is delays at the border and additional bureaucracy.

For example, milk for human consumption must enter EU via inspection post where 100% shipments subject to identity & doc checks; 50% physical inspection.
Because twitter, I’ve had a few “well that’s not a problem because we don’t export much milk” responses despite me saying it was just an example.

Here’s a product by product breakdown of checks and frequency UK products of animal origin would face if no deal.
The physical inspection rate can be reduced if the UK and EU reach an equivalence arrangement but this doesn’t remove need for document and identity checks nor for products to enter EU via a veterinary border inspection post. Anyway, it’s all in here: apha.defra.gov.uk/documents/bip/…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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1/ Another customs thread. This time on #customs formalities and #Backstop . Backstop envisages a #customsunion with simplifications. It mentions that a movement certificate, A.UK, will be required. No mention of customs declarations.
2/ Movement certificate demonstrates that goods are eligible for trade under a customs union. Is certified by e.g. a Chamber of Commerce. Declarations do more than that. They are entered into the national customs system and enable customs authorities to collect customs data.
3/ Much more info on a declaration than on a movement cert. Some of the most important fields include commodity code, value of goods, country of origin and customs procedure. Would imagine the UK would still like to collect this data for various reasons even under backstop.
Read 9 tweets
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1. To address a point that remainers are having fun with... the assertion that Argentina will use our #Brexit circumstances at the WTO to enhance its stake on the Falklands... is totally baloney. You know this of course, but there's a few points worth making. #Trade thread!
2. These such signals are as much for domestic consumption as anything else. This isn't the first and won't be the last. We will see a number of attempts to frustrate the UK's separation process in the hope that it will leverage concessions from the UK.
3. Some FT hack has probably already penned a poison article on how the UK will be forced to cave in because we are so weakened and feeble without the EU. As a point of fact the UK is not obliged to concede on any point at any time so long as it pays due regard to consequences.
Read 25 tweets
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On the left is a 10 year old tin of paint. The new one with the roll out label features ASTM US emblem but also the Globally Harmonised System of classification and labelling of chemicals warnings. This is how businesses maximise export potential and why global standards matter.
The upshot of this is that a product previously only sold in Europe can now be exported globally because countries have agreed to the use of common labelling standards from UNECE - especially relevant to even EU trade agreements...
Prior to this convention producers would have to produce separate batches with different labels (overheads!) - and that is the potential regression we may see if the Tories choose to diverge from EU mandated standards - not least because the EU converges on the global standard.
Read 18 tweets
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1. I’m seeing a number of people (liberal leavers, Remainer ‘compromisers’) going through he cogs of getting to EEA/EFTA minus CU as being an acceptable solution for Britain post-Brexit.
2. The thought process seems to be that it throws a bone to Leavers with an ‘independent trade policy’, whilst maintaining (in the case of Remainer ‘compromisers’) something that they want, normally freedom of movement.
3. I’m genuinely confused why people are still pushing this position.
Read 17 tweets
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1. A thread on #trade and aid.

One of the first tangible benefits of #Brexit I've seen is the emerging reform of @DFID_UK where it is becoming more of an arm of trade policy than a state owned humanitarian NGO. I would like that to go much further and rethink trade.
2. I do not think we should be wasting too much effort on free trade deals largely because they are of questionable value and encourage inefficient value chains. Any work on tariffs should really be reserved for multilateral activity.
3. Instead we need DfID as the spearhead of our trade policy. There is no reason why we cannot pursue humanitarian goals and enhance our trade while we are at it. For a start we can do a lot with medicines and pharmacy products.
Read 21 tweets
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Corbyn & a customs union: a short thread
Will Corbyn fully back a UK-EU customs union (CU) covering all goods including agriculture & fisheries? EU might agree industrial goods-only CU but agriculture vital for N Ireland border & EU won’t agree any future UK-EU deal without a deal on access to waters (for fisheries)
How many Labour pro-Brexit rebels will vote against a customs union? Are there enough Tory rebels to counter this? Not yet clear. If Westminster votes for a customs union, will the government fall – quite likely but not guaranteed. Will Corbyn demand a say in EU trade policy? 2.
Read 10 tweets

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