Corbyn & a customs union: a short thread
Will Corbyn fully back a UK-EU customs union (CU) covering all goods including agriculture & fisheries? EU might agree industrial goods-only CU but agriculture vital for N Ireland border & EU won’t agree any future UK-EU deal without a deal on access to waters (for fisheries)
How many Labour pro-Brexit rebels will vote against a customs union? Are there enough Tory rebels to counter this? Not yet clear. If Westminster votes for a customs union, will the government fall – quite likely but not guaranteed. Will Corbyn demand a say in EU trade policy? 2.
UK cd get a CU joint committee with EU, like Turkey, but it certainly won’t get a vote or say as it does being full EU member. So a customs union Brexit means UK won’t have an independent trade policy for goods, applies EU tariffs, loses its influence & vote on EU trade deals 3.
A customs union-only Brexit helps the Northern Ireland border problem but doesn’t solve it – NI wd need to follow single mkt rules too including for agriculture. Turkey’s border w EU countries is not frictionless & lorries need transit certificates. 4.
A customs-union Brexit doesn’t help services at all. EU-UK trade in services cd fall more than 60% in a customs union or Canada-style free trade deal. A CU deal helps manufacturing, cross-border supply chains but there will still be problems at UK-EU border (as for NI). 5.
UK exports to EU wd still need to meet all EU regulations but CU alone wdn’t give frictionless access to single mkt (unless UK joins EEA). Wd Corbyn aim for UK to follow all EU regulations but not stay in EEA nor have free movement – EU wd still see this as cake & eat it 6.
UK cd attempt to negotiate its own services trade deals, but these are v tricky & anyway many goods & services are sold as a package so then UK must still apply EU tariffs/trade agreements. UK wd also have to negotiate access to 3rd country mkts where EU has done a trade deal 7.
So why support a UK-EU customs union instead of staying in the EU or staying in CU +single market? It cd bring May govt down but wd Corbyn go into a general eln on a fairly damaging CU-only Brexit? quite possibly 8.
For Scotland, wd SNP, if general election led to a minority Lab govt, demand a 2nd indy &/or 2nd EU ref as its price (given SNP still not supporting 2nd EU ref). Customs union-only Brexit doesn’t solve Scotland/England border problem if Scotland chose indy in coming years 9. Ends
