1. I’m seeing a number of people (liberal leavers, Remainer ‘compromisers’) going through he cogs of getting to EEA/EFTA minus CU as being an acceptable solution for Britain post-Brexit.
2. The thought process seems to be that it throws a bone to Leavers with an ‘independent trade policy’, whilst maintaining (in the case of Remainer ‘compromisers’) something that they want, normally freedom of movement.
3. I’m genuinely confused why people are still pushing this position.
4. First and foremost, leaving the Customs Union will introduce a border in Northern Ireland, whether on the ground or in the sea. Both are ruled out by govt and a majority in Parliament as they are politically unacceptable, so it simply will not happen.
5. Second, leaving the CU is undoubtedly a bad economic deal. The UK will lose its competitive edge in industries that rely on just in time deliveries, eg car manufactiuring, aerospace, etc, creating permanent economic losses to the UK.
6. There is no way that the ability to sign our own (UK) trade deals as opposed to relying on existing (EU) trade deal could ever make up for these losses.
7. The tariffs faced by the UK today are already vanishingly small in the historic context. There really isn’t a great deal more to squeeze out here, even if (and it is a big if) all of the exiting EU FTAs we benefit from could be replicated.
8. And this is before we even get onto the topics of chlorinated chicken, etc with our largest potential ex-EU trade partner and the political impossibility of signing up to this in the UK.
9. So in summary leaving the CU for an EEA only solution will undoubtedly
- make us worse off
- wipe out significant parts of our existing manufacting industry in the north and midlands
- is a political impossibility due to the Northern Irish issue.
- make us worse off
- wipe out significant parts of our existing manufacting industry in the north and midlands
- is a political impossibility due to the Northern Irish issue.
10. So I am left wondering why anyone from the Remain side would continue promoting this.
11. It seems the issue is one of ‘empathy’ or ‘feelings’ (towards Leavers) trumping rationality in policy making.
12. Of course it was the largely the promotion of ‘feelings’ over ‘facts’ or ‘rationality’ that largely got us into this state in the first. Continuing down this course hardly seems like a sensible way of steering ourselves away from the abyss of declining levels of UK governance
13. In addition, the political impossibility of going down this route makes me wonder what the endgame of those promoting it is. What do they hope to achieve? A warm feeling of communinion with liberal Leavers before the island they are standing on gets swept away?
14. Would it not be more sensible to accept at this stage that the only EEA solution that could work is EEA plus (with CU) and focus on this? Ok, it may upset some supporters of Leave, but isn’t it better to get to a point of realistic outcomes sooner rather than later?
15. Of course, once you are at EEA+CU, you might want to examine what this really gains over EU membership itself. If being outside the ‘EU political construct’ simply means that our ministers stay at home whist EU27 ministers decide the EEA+CU rules that hardly seems like a win.
16. Given this, having the option to hold a People’s Vote on whether to accept an EEA+CU solution (aka the best available Brexit) or decide to to stay in the EU, seems sensible. / Ends
PS apologies for the multiple misspellings and missing words above!
