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Noah Smith @Noahpinion
, 8 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1/Because I am in kind of an ornery mood, I want to take a moment and write a thread about how wrong this Bret Stephens post-election column was. Nearly every sentence is wrong!

nytimes.com/2018/11/08/opi…
2/Stephens says the Dems won 37 seats. In fact they won 41. Stephens simply did not wait til the results were in.
3/Stephens' next point - that the 63-seat Republican swing in 2010 (not "2011" but we'll let that slide) didn't help Mitt Romney win in 2012.

That implies that even huge wave midterms don't matter for presidential elections, which *negates the entire thesis of his column*.
4/Stephens next asserts that Democrats haven't "figured out how to turn votes into seats".

(First of all, I think turning votes into seats is called "democracy", but we'll let that slide.)

That's not even true! The Dems' seat percent was HIGHER than their vote percent!!
5/Stephens claims that Dems didn't "convert the unconverted".

That is not even close to true. Here's a huge detailed report on all the people who switched their vote: wthh.dataforprogress.org/exploring-vote…
6/I mean.

7/How do you write an article where practically every line is an error?

This is one of the most error-filled articles I have ever read. It's just jaw-dropping.

(end)
OMG and the op-ed originally claimed a much LOWER seat number for Dems, and the NYT has been quietly updating the column as more races were called for Dems. And it's still lower than the real number.

Wow.

mediamatters.org/blog/2018/11/3…
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One thing I think would help reduce elite Millennial burnout/disappointment/rage is for people to stop thinking that their job should save the world.

"Save the world" and "make the world a better place" are probably just things employers tell you to get you to work for cheap.
Maybe your job will give you meaning and purpose and a sense of doing good for the world.

Or maybe it'll just make you some money so you can raise some kids, have some pet rabbits, and be active in your local community.

There's more than one way to get meaning in life.
Also, people glorify saving the world when it probably just gives you PTSD.

We like watching Star Wars and Lord of the Rings and whatever, but we wouldn't want to actually fight Darth Vader or slog through Mordor. That would cause major burnout!
Read 3 tweets
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1/Since Trump's demand for his Wall is in the headlines, I thought it would be a good time for a thread about a history book I just read:

"Dividing Lines: The Politics of Immigration Control in America", by Daniel Tichenor (2002)

amazon.com/Dividing-Lines…
2/The book starts out with a chapter or two of dense, unnecessary political science jargon, saying that - essentially - U.S. immigration policy tends to move very slowly, because powerful politicians and officials resist the tide of public opinion.
3/But most of the book is an extremely readable, eye-opening history of U.S. immigration policy, from the founding through the 1990s.

It shows how the immigration debates we're now having have been with us, in some form or another, for a very long time.
Read 27 tweets
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Thread about why very high tax rates on very rich people don't raise much revenue (or reduce inequality much, even within the top tier).

Our system has a million loopholes. Closing them is more important than raising top rates.
That's not to say there's a trade-off between raising the top rate and closing loopholes! They are complements, not substitutes.

But if you just raise the top rate without closing loopholes, you'll likely be disappointed.
The fact is, raising effective taxes on the very rich will require a comprehensive sustained push on a large number of policy fronts. There is not going to be one silver bullet.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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For some of us, too, it /IS/ all men, or has BECOME all men. Saying “Not All Men,” then, is telling us our experience isn’t real, which— fun fact— makes you one of those men.

Instead — 👏🏼 ACTIONABLE ADVICE AHEAD 👏🏼 (thread)
Apologize for your gender (leave the part where you blame society for how you’re socialized until later— she may even bring it up herself! We know!), thereby acknowledging & validating her experience, and ask yourself or even her (!) How can I make THIS experience better?

E.g.
Hang on, I have to get a beer.

And dinner— it’s not /just/ bc of this thread! 🤣
Read 25 tweets
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THREAD: Mueller is expected to release new details about former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn today. Here are some highlights from our explainer on his long history of sketchy foreign influence: themoscowproject.org/explainers/fly…
While serving as the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency in 2013, Flynn took a delegation to Moscow to meet with the GRU, becoming the first U.S. officer to step inside GRU headquarters. washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoin…
Flynn really, really seemed to want to build a relationship with the GRU, trying to schedule another visit and reportedly inviting some GRU officers to the U.S. newyorker.com/magazine/2017/…
Read 20 tweets
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Imperfectly Perfect Love #Thread
"I haven't written for a while, I'm not even sure I can piece words together to form beautiful sentences that would appeal to you the reader, but I do have a story, a really beautiful story...." I paused. Would that make for a good intro? Was something missing? As I pondered, my
thoughts were interrupted by a light knock on the bedroom door, and the sight of a bearded light-skinned face peeping
"Hey Teddy Bear, you up yet?" Chuks said, as he came in.
"No, you light-skinned bearded Ogre, I'm still fast asleep" I replied.
Read 49 tweets
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[thread]

hi friends, i want to take a moment to discuss something i consider serious and important within this community - cancel culture.

i urge you to read the entire thread before reacting and replying, and then i’ll be happy to have a conversation with you.
to start off - a disclaimer:

there are scenarios that have recently happened that sparked my desire to make this thread. but this thread is not related to any of those and is not my response to any recent scenarios.

these are strictly my thoughts on cancel culture as a whole.
so first, what is cancel culture?

cancel culture is essentially the behavior/mentality that whenever a member of this community, reviewers and authors alike, does anything wrong, they deserve to be blackballed, cancelled, and kicked out of the community.
Read 18 tweets
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THREAD: I want to take a moment to elaborate why we should be so concerned that Jim Clapper, John Brennan, Admiral McRaven, Mike Hayden, and other officials feel it necessary to speak out against Trump:
1) Lost amid the controversy last week about Trump yanking Brennan's security clearance is just how unusual it is for any of these officials to be speaking publicly—and that fact alone should be cause for concern....
2) This is no ordinary political criticism. Do not fall into Trump's trap that this is just more of the same, more partisan sniping from the Swamp from swamp creatures....
Read 13 tweets

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