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Steven Swinford @Steven_Swinford
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
EXCLUSIVE

Theresa May's chief Brexit adviser Olly Robbins warned that customs backstop is a 'bad outcome' for UK

He said it will lead to regulatory controls in Irish Sea, 'serious & visible frictions' with EU and 'no security co-operation provided for'

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Robbins:

'We should not forget that the backstop world, even with a UK-EU customs union, is a bad outcome with regulatory controls needed somewhere between GB and NI, serious and visible frictions and process between GB and the EU, and no security co-operation provided for'
Robbins also warned UK has no legal means of breaking off from backstop.

While both sides are required to make 'best endeavours' - acting in good faith - to a deal, this does not place EU under any legal 'obligation'

He effectively said there is no guarantee we can get out.
Priti Patel: ‘When even architect of this agreement appears to be saying this is a bad deal, colleagues must seriously question how they can vote for this.

‘This only makes a stronger case for MPs to see the AGs full legal advice before being asked to vote on this terrible deal’
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More from @Steven_Swinford see all

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This was undoubtedly be THE quote of today's Cabinet.

David Gauke described a managed no-deal as a 'unicorn that needs to be slaughtered'.

Poor unicorns...

🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄
Here's some more of David Gauke said:

'Managed no-deal is not a viable option.

'It's not on offer from the EU and the responsibility of Cabinet Ministers is not to propagate unicorns but to slay them'
Behind the extraordinary metaphor lies a very real Cabinet row.

There is a *lot* of support round the Cabinet table for a manged no deal - as many as 11 ministers back it as a 'plan B'.

But to the Remainers it is utterly unacceptable - a line they cannot and will not cross
Read 5 tweets
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EXCLUSIVE

The Government has taken secret legal advice on extending Article 50 which it argues effectively rules out a second referendum.

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Advice states UK will be legally obliged to take part in European Parliament elections in May of next and subsequently have send British MEPs to Brussels if it extends A50

It warns there will be 'high risk of successful legal challenge' if UK refuses to take part in elections
Ministers who have seen advice say this means that July 2nd, the start of the next five-year session of the European Parliament, is a 'hard' deadline for extending Article 50.
Read 4 tweets
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Mervyn King, former Bank of England Governor, lets rip about Theresa May's Brexit deal in an article for Bloomberg, saying it is a 'betrayal of Britain'

'When Tony Blair & Boris Johnson unite in condemnation, something has gone badly wrong'

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Lord King takes direct aim at Mark Carney:

'It saddens me to see the Bank unnecessarily drawn into this project'

He quotes nobel prize winning @paulkrugman - who is 'no friend of Brexit' - but has described the Bank's worst-case scenario analysis as 'dubious' and 'questionable'
@paulkrugman Lord King: on Theresa May's Brexit deal:

'The country is entitled to expect something better than a muddled commitment to perpetual subordination from which UK cannot withdraw without agreement'
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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1/ Another customs thread. This time on #customs formalities and #Backstop . Backstop envisages a #customsunion with simplifications. It mentions that a movement certificate, A.UK, will be required. No mention of customs declarations.
2/ Movement certificate demonstrates that goods are eligible for trade under a customs union. Is certified by e.g. a Chamber of Commerce. Declarations do more than that. They are entered into the national customs system and enable customs authorities to collect customs data.
3/ Much more info on a declaration than on a movement cert. Some of the most important fields include commodity code, value of goods, country of origin and customs procedure. Would imagine the UK would still like to collect this data for various reasons even under backstop.
Read 9 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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Post Salzburg big barrier to deal is sorting Irish backstop before/at Oct EU summit in order to confirm Nov. Our @RaynerSkyNews traveling with PM asked her repeatedly about whether see UK plan before Oct, and if involves regulatory border in Irish Sea
NB this was yesterday - but PM did not take opportunity to confirm there would be a detailed Irish backstop plan before October, nor elaborate on her Downing st statement hint of a Stormont-approved Irish Sea regulatory check system... quotes...
PM did say this: “What we’re looking at is addressing the [backstop] issue - if in the circumstances our future trading relationship has been agreed but there is a delay in putting it into practice that we ensure that for that period of that delay there will be no hard border”
Read 6 tweets
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A 'Greatest Hits' collection of slides on #Brexit & @BorderIrish

[for those covering the topic in weeks to come
& who might value a few prompt cards] 🤓

Inc. @BelfastAgmt, #crossborder #customs #backstop #chequers #BorderTech, NI party & public views.

qpol.qub.ac.uk/brexit-irish-b…
1998 Good Friday (Belfast) Agreement

2/12
Risks to peace process

3/12
Read 12 tweets
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Olly Robbins is in Brussels today for more #Brexit talks.

Top of the agenda is the 'insoluble' Irish backstop issue - but how 'insoluble' it really? Is there a way through?

Maybe. Some thoughts after chats with both sides. 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
First, the problem, real quick.

EU needs 'backstop' that works in all eventualities, including a breakdown in future relationship talks at the end of transition.

With no border in Ireland, there "must" logically be checks between NI and GB to protect single market. /2
The problem is that puts a *customs* border in the Irish Sea, and the UK government cannot live with that, since it splits up UK.

Theresa May was very hard over on this point in her speech in Belfast. Barnier's Task Force 50 blanched last week when they saw how hard over. /3
Read 22 tweets
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Lots of noise around on #Brexit and customs today. The 'war' cabinet couldn't make decision. Here's what I know from sources in London, Dublin and Brussels. /1
The Olly Robbins presentation to cabinet heavily favoured the idea of a 'customs partnership' over a 'streamlined' or 'MaxFac' solution - still basically the two options outlined in the August customs paper here, and regurgitated at Mansion House /2

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Even though the CP has been dismissed as 'magical thinking' etc, the govt is not giving up on the idea.

Why? Because, if it worked, it's the only way to get an All-UK solution on customs, avoid a goods border in Irish Sea and preserve some independent trade policy /3
Read 15 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Maybot #BrexitShambles #BrexitVote #Haddock #Brexit #Mackerel #Herring #backstop #brexit #NHS #Backstop #SingleMarket #KeepTheFaith #BrexitDK #Cod #Chequers #chequers #GDPR #EUCO #PeoplesVote #BrexitChaos #CPC18 #Border #UKTrade #GE2017

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